Wind Advisory 10, NWS Juneau, AK

168 
WWAK77 PAJK 222142
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1242 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

AKZ022-230115-
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110123T0300Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
1242 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: SOUTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
  STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG CROSS SOUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-230115-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110123T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1242 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: SOUTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

662 
WWAK77 PAJK 230037
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
337 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

AKZ018-022-230300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-110123T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
337 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND: SOUTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
  DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
602 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...LITTLE CHANGE TO A FORECAST OF WET AND
UNSEASONABLY  WARM CONDITIONS NEAR SEA LEVEL. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD.
SOME DEFINITIONS OF TERMS ARE GIVEN BELOW TO PROVIDE A BROAD
AUDIENCE ADAPTATION.

 980 MB LOW IS MOVING NE AND SHOULD BE ONSHORE AT ICY BAY ABT
17Z.   THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INDICATED ON THE 12Z
PAYA RAOB  AS A LAYER FM 800 TO 700 MB, AND THE GOES IR AT 14Z
SHOWS THE  FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW FM CAPE FAIRWEATHER.

 SOME TERMS ARE DEFINED HERE THAT ARE USED FARTHER BELOW:

 1. ISALLOBARS, OR LINES OF CONSTANT PRESSURE TENDENCY.  2.
ISALLOBARIC FOOTPRINT; PATTERNS OF PRESSURE TENDENCY. 3. THE TERM
"POLAR AIRMASS" HAS A LITERALLY BROAD MEANING. IT IS A TERM USED
FOR AIR MASSES OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERES AND CAN
COVER MOST OF THE HEMISPHERE THAT HAS WINTER. POLAR AIRMASSES
EXIST AS BOTH MARITIME AND CONTINENTAL VERSIONS. THE TERM "POLAR
FRONT" MEANS A SEMIPERMANENT SEMICONTINUOUS FRONT SEPARATING AIR
MASSES OF TROPICAL AND POLAR ORIGIN. THIS POLAR FRONT BOUNDARY CAN
BE STRONG YET QUITE THIN ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE JETSTREAM. THE POLAR FRONT HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURE ACROSS IT. NEAR THE SURFACE THIS BOUNDARY CAN HAVE
WINDS WITH QUITE DIFFERENT DIRECTION AND SPEED, AND AS A BOUNDARY
CAN PROVIDE LIFTING OR SUBSIDENCE OF AIR MASSES THAT RESULT IN
CONDENSATION FOR CLOUDMASS AND PRECIPITATION. NOTE THE TERM
"ARCTIC AIRMASS" DENOTES A COLDER AND DRIER VOLUME THAT IS
CHARACTERISTICALLY SHALLOWER AND NOT DIRECTED BY UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES SUCH AS THE JET STREAM. WE DO NOT HAVE A WAY TO GET AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS TO OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.

 THE 982 MB LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE, HAS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT IS
PRODUCING THE ISALLOBARIC FOOTPRINT OF A REDEVELOPMENT LOW FOR
SRN YUKON TERRITORY AS PER THE MODELS. THE GFS WAS CHOSEN PARTLY
FOR THESE FEATURES. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FOR THE POLAR FRONT
WAVES THAT EXTEND SSW FM OVER CAPE FAIRWEATHER HAVE BEEN EASY TO
RECONCILE WITH THE GFS RUN AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...AREA WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE SW FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK WITH SYSTEMS MOVING THRU THE AREA APPROXIMATELY EVERY
DAY OR SO THRU THU...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR A LARGER BREAK BETWEEN
SYSTEMS LATE THU INTO FRI. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW THRU THE WEEK BUT HAVE THEIR USUAL DIFFERENCES ON
THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AFTER COORD WITH WFO PAFC...ENDED UP
USING THE 00Z NAM FROM 12Z SUN TO 12Z MON...A NAM/00Z ECMWF BLEND
12Z MON TO 12Z TUE...THEN AN ECMWF/HPC BLEND FOR 12Z TUE ON OUT.
DID PUT A LITTLE HEAVIER WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF FOR THE FIRST 24 HRS
OF THE BLEND WITH HPC TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER SFC LOW IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS THAN WHAT HPC HAD ON TUE...BUT AFTER THAT THE BLEND
WAS EVEN.

 AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE MOVING NE THRU THE AREA SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS FRONT A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
THERE WILL BE A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT BUT
THIS LOW SHOULD STAY WELL W OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE PRECIP FROM
THIS FRONT MOVE ONSHORE LATER SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD
HAVE GALE FORCE E-SE WINDS OVER THE GULF AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMING SW 25-35 KT BY EARLY EVENING. INNER CHANNELS
WILL GENERALLY SEE SCA LEVEL WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. MAY NEED LOW
END WIND ADVYS FOR SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS
SYSTEM.

 A WEAKER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MON. IT WILL BRING SOME
PRECIP TO THE AREA AS WELL BUT WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN
THEY WERE WITH PREVIOUS FRONT...PEAKING AT SCA LEVELS. THE PRECIP
WILL LIKELY BE LESS ORGANIZED THOUGH SO POPS WERE LIMITED TO
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXCEPTION TO THIS
WAS THE PAYA AREA WHERE A LITTLE STRONGER MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
MOVE THRU...SO WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THERE.

 LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FOR LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. DECENT STRENGTH SFC LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NE
GULF BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE WINDS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST MIN GALES WILL OCCUR OVER THE
GULF...AND IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS RIGHT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD MUCH LESS WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WANTED TO START TREND
UPWARD AND NOT JUMP STRAIGHT TO THE STRONG ECMWF WINDS YET. LATER
SHIFTS CAN REFINE THIS AS EVENT GETS CLOSER. IN EITHER
CASE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA...AND WITH
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...WENT WITH CAT POPS MOST AREAS MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.

 SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF TUE NIGHT
AND WED. THIS ONE COULD BE ESPECIALLY WET AND WINDY AS IT WILL
HAVE A STRONG SW JET CORE ACCOMPANYING IT...AS WELL AS A LIKELY
LOW LATITUDE MOISTURE CONNECTION. ONCE AGAIN...WENT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

 FOR LATE WEEK AND BEYOND...MODELS AGREE THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA LATER THU INTO FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN BEST CHANCE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL BE. LOWERED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE LAND AREA BY FRI...KEEPING HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY ALSO BE WHEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS MOVES IN. ANY COOL DOWN SHOULD NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER AS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS SHOULD MOVE IN BY FRI NIGHT OR
SAT WITH WARMER AIR.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035.

&&

JBT/RWT