Storm Warning 77, NWS Juneau, AK

720 
FZAK52 PAJK 130343 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
643 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-132145-
643 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG WEST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF
THROUGH SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-132145-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
643 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 31 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 30 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-132145-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
643 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 32 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. RAIN SHOWERS...MIXED WITH SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 34 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-132145-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
643 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-132145-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
643 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT LATE. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 29 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-132145-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
643 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT
LATE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
231 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

.SHORT TERM...WEAKENING LOW IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SE AK AND
WILL BE E OF THE AREA BY 00Z. A WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE FAR
NRN GULF THIS EVENING AND DRIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO THE FAR NE GULF
SUN. A TROF WILL MOVE E THRU THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. USED THE 12Z
ECMWF FOR THE PRESSURE FIELD AS IT HAD GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS AND SEAS. ATTM STG WLY WINDS ARE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF AND THEY JUST RECENTLY REACHED
THE OUTER COAST. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE BUT BACK OFF
SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW OVER THE NRN AREA
PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING GOING UNTIL 03Z FOR ZONES
23 AND 27. THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR LATER
THIS EVENING THRU SUN AFTERNOON ONCE WARNING ENDS. WILL KEEP THE
STRONG WIND HEADLINES ELSEWHERE S OF A PAJN-PAEL LINE. DROPPED THE
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THE FAR NRN AREAS DUE TO THE MAIN BELT
OF STRONGER WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TO THEIR S.

WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN UP TO 32 FT OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF. THEY
WILL REMAIN IN THE 26 TO 32 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GULF
THRU SUN. THE FAR NRN GULF SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS GIVEN THE
LARGE WLY SWELLS WILL BE DIRECTED TO THEIR S.

OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN THE FAR NRN AREA PRECIP HAS BECOME RAIN
SHOWERS. THE FAR N HAS A FEW FLURRIES AROUND. OTHER THAN THE
CHILKAT VALLEY EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING TO CAUSE PRECIP OVER THE N TO
GO LIQUID NEAR SEA LEVEL BUT IT WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W AND BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
-8C OR COLDER...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE W SUN OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SERN AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR SEA LEVEL THROUGH SUN WITH TEMPS LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS
LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...A TWO STEP COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR WITH THE FIRST A
WEAK PRECIP MECHANISM FOR SUN NIGHT, AND A LARGE SCALE ARCTIC OUTBREAK
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE PACKAGE HAVE
BEEN FOR STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

FIRST AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK FROM THE INTERIOR TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL BECOME MARINE MODIFIED AS IT TRACKS E TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.
THIS ARCTIC OUTFLOW OVER THE COMPARATIVELY WARM WATER IN THE GULF
RESULTS IN A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER THAT RAPIDLY SENDS WATER VAPOR
AND WARMING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIFTING OF THIS AIRMASS THEN
RESULTS IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDMASS, AS WELL AS PRECIP WITH AMOUNTS
LIMITED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS.

00Z TO 12Z WED. AN UNMODIFIED ARCTIC OUTBREAK FM THE N WILL
FOLLOW WITH TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ021-024>026-028-029.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ022.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>033-035-036-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-034-053.

&&

RWT/JBT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
251 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
11/12/2011  M12.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOWFALL FROM THE START OF THE EVENT UNTIL 8 AM.

0900 AM     SNOW             7 S HAINES              59.14N 135.44W
11/12/2011  M13.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL SINCE THE START OF THE EVENT THROUGH 830 AM

0900 AM     SNOW             15 NNE SKAGWAY          59.68N 135.17W
11/12/2011  E8.0 INCH        XXX                XX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            KLONDIKE ROAD REPORT-SUMMIT/BORDER

0900 AM     SNOW             7 N SKAGWAY             59.58N 135.33W
11/12/2011  M3.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOWFALL FROM START OF EVENT UNTIL 8 AM.

0900 AM     SNOW             40 WNW HAINES           59.46N 136.49W
11/12/2011  M12.0 INCH       XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAINES BORDER - MEASURED AT 7 AM

0900 AM     SNOW             HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
11/12/2011  M11.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAINES 2 - SNOWFALL FROM START OF EVENT UNTIL 8 AM.

0900 AM     SNOW             6 S HAINES              59.15N 135.44W
11/12/2011  M13.0 INCH       PKZ012             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL FROM START OF EVENT THROUGH 830 AM.

0900 AM     SNOW             40 NW HAINES            59.65N 136.25W
11/12/2011  M12.0 INCH       XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAINES BORDER - SNOWFALL FROM START OF EVENT THROUGH 7 AM

0900 AM     SNOW             7 N SKAGWAY             59.58N 135.33W
11/12/2011  M3.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SKAGWAY BORDER - SNOWFALL FROM START OF EVENT THROUGH 8
            AM.

0900 AM     SNOW             15 NNE SKAGWAY          59.68N 135.17W
11/12/2011  E8.0 INCH        XXX                XX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SUMMIT/BORDER - SNOW REPORT AT 8 AM.

&&

KAV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
258 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     SNOW             YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
11/12/2011  M11.7 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WSO OFFICE - SNOW STARTED PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10
            AM.

&&

KAV