Storm Warning 57, NWS Juneau, AK

758 
FZAK52 PAJK 260136 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
536 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-261600-
536 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE FAR NW GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO
THE NE GULF NEAR YAKUTAT WED. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS SE ALASKA TUE
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-261600-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
536 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS
19 BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 


$$

PKZ042-261600-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
536 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-261600-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
536 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. OUT OF
CROSS SOUND...GUSTS TO 70 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
22 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 


$$

PKZ051-261600-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
536 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 19 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
23 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-261600-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
536 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
BUILDING TO 24 FT LATE. SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
25 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

862 
FZAK52 PAJK 260420 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
820 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-261600-
820 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE FAR NW GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO
THE NE GULF NEAR YAKUTAT WED. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS SE ALASKA TUE
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-261600-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
820 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-261600-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
820 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-261600-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
820 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
22 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-261600-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
820 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
23 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-261600-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
820 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
24 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
25 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...INTENSE STORM JUST E OF KODIAK WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF TO NEAR YAKUTAT BY WED AFTERNOON.
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE THRU SE
ALASKA TONIGHT.

 THERE ARE A MYRIAD OF FORECAST CONCERNS THRU WED. THE BIGGEST
ONE IS THE WIND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STORM FORCE SE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR ERN GULF...AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE INNER CHANNELS. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK
AT GALE FORCE FOR ALL BUT GLACIER BAY AND NRN CHATHAM STRAIT
WHERE THEY SHOULD PEAK NEAR 30 KT...AND CLARENCE STRAIT WHERE
WINDS WILL PEAK AT STORM FORCE THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE PUBLIC
WIND HEADLINES AS THEY WERE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE WIND MOST AREAS AFTER FROPA LATER TONIGHT BEFORE
STRONG WSW FLOW MOVES IN WED AS WEAKENING LOW MOVES INTO THE NE
GULF. EXCEPTION TO THIS TREND WILL BE IN LYNN CANAL...WHERE WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER FROPA AS MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM S
TO SW...KEEPING LOWER PRESSURES NEAR PAGY AND SLY GRADIENT
INCREASES AS A RESULT.

 NEXT...HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR THE WHITE PASS
AREA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED THERE TONIGHT. TEMPS IN THE PASS WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES
SO THE SNOW WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE...BUT STRONG ENOUGH WINDS
THRU THE PASS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THIS
SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY WED AS PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY AND
MOST SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE SW OF THEM.

 ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING IN THE PAYA
AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. WILL BE NEAR PEAK OF TIDAL
CYCLE MID TO LATE THIS WEEK... GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
DECENT SW FLOW MOVING INTO THE PAYA AREA ALONG WITH HIGH
SEAS...EXPECT SOME TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE SITUK FISHING CAMP.
LOOKS LIKE A 1.5 TO 2 FT STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WED AS WELL. HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR 19-23Z WED FOR PAYA
AREA...WHICH IS WITHIN 2 HRS OF THE HIGH TIDE.

 OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE SOME TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE NRN GULF
TONIGHT AFTER FROPA. STRONG PVA AND DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP AS THE
CONVECTIVE CELLS APPROACH THE COAST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TSTMS ALONG THE OUTER COAST WED IN A FAIRLY STRONG WSW
FLOW...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL.

 WILL HAVE SOME VERY LARGE SEAS OVER THE GULF ESPECIALLY WED AS A
LONG FETCH WSW GALE FORCE FLOW WILL SET UP. SEAS COULD REACH
30 FT OR MORE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURS THROUGH TUES PERIOD CAN CHARACTERIZED AS ACTIVE
WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE GULF AND PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW AVE ON DETAILS DUE TO DISSIMILAR
SOLUTIONS BY GLOBAL GFS...EURO CENTER...AND ENSEMBLE MODELS. BASED
ON GUIDANCE FROM NATIONAL CENTERS...DECIDED TO MAKE FEW CHANGES TO
FORECAST...AND TREND TOWARD EURO AND HPC SOLUTIONS AFTER SAT.

 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SE OUT OF SIBERIA TODAY INTO N PACIFIC
WILL MOVE PAST ALEUTIAN CHAIN THUR AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE FRI MORNING. EURO MODEL HAS DEEPER SURFACE LOW WEST OF
HAIDA GWAII FRI MORNING WHILE GFS PUTS SFC LOW CENTER WEST OF
CRAIG. RESULTANT WEATHER WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WIND FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO TO
PUT THE DETAILS ON EXACT TRACT OF STORM AND STRENGTH OF WIND.
GALES MENTIONED THERE IN CURRENT FORECAST LOOK LIKELY. LATER FRI
NARROW BUT STRONG RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH AS SFC LOW CENTER
FILLS AND WASHES OUT INLAND.

 AFFECTS OF NARROW RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHE SYSTEM
BARRELS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GULF BY SAT MORNING. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AGAIN BUT THEY DO AGREE THE THE LOW CENTER
SLOWS AS IT NEARS THE COAST SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LONG
SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON SAT. THIS SYSTEM WASHES OUT
SAT NIGHT AND ENERGY IS REFOCUSED ON YET OTHER SYSTEMS CROSSING
THE BERING AND ON PACE TO REACH THE PANHANDLE ABOUT SUN AND AGAIN MID
NEXT WEEK. BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES THE LATE FORECAST PERIODS
WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH EXCEPT MAYBE TO INCREASE THE POPS A BIT.
W-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPS POSSIBILITY OF ROUGH SEAS IN THE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ019-025-026-029.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020-021-024.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017-022.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033>035-041-042-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-032.

&&

RWT/TA