Storm Warning 38, NWS Juneau, AK

507 
FZAK67 PAJK 192052 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1252 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-201500-
1252 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS
TO THE EASTERN GULF MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  

$$

PKZ310-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1252 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

464 
FZAK67 PAJK 192325
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-201400-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS
TO THE EASTERN GULF MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  

$$

PKZ310-201400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

659 
FZAK67 PAJK 201145
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-210100-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 967 MB GALE FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ONTO KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. A GALE FORCE LOW WELL SW OF
DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT BECOMING 968 MB
125 NM OFF SITKA WED MORNING.  

$$

PKZ310-210100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EARLY
MORNING FOR THE S PART. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.SHORT TERM... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE HAS CAUSED SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS TODAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...OCCNLY HEAVY...CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. RAIN BANDS EXTENDING OUT FROM THE LOW HAVE SWEPT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AREAS CAUSING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE TO THE NORTH THE MID LEVEL EAST WINDS HAS KEEP IT
DRY...WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER YAKUTAT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 40MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND FILLS. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN INSIDE WATERS TO BECOME
LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT...CONTINUING THE STRONG
WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT...AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL FOR LYNN CANAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS WELL...LASTING
THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN MONDAY MORNING BEFORE RAIN WITH THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT LOW WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS BY MID DAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL
LAND AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE FOR THE YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE AND SITKA AREAS AS WELL AS
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR YAKUTAT BAY.

 MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH...UPDATED PRESSURE FIELDS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT
INITIALIZED THE BEST AND USED MAINLY THE NAM FOR OTHER FIELDS
INCLUDING POPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF HAS BEEN
WELL FORECASTED OVER THE PAST WEEK...KEEPING FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN STORE FOR
THE WEEK WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO
THE EAST AS A STORM FORCE LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF. THE
OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THE THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS. 850 MB BARRIER JET WITH 80 TO 85 KT WINDS FORMS
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY JUST AS ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW MOVES UP FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST AK GULF. SINCE MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW HAVE ADDED MORE DETAILS TO THE
FORECAST WHICH INCREASED WINDS AND POP FOR MID WEEK. MODELS STILL
HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES FOR THE LOW. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AK PANHANDLE WITH A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP, BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. FOR
THE WEEKEND ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW IS TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ONCE AGAIN MODELS HAVE TIMING
ISSUES, BUT ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS
LOW. THROUGH THE WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL GALES ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH UPPER LEVEL SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS. WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEK WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR HYDROLOGY ISSUES, BUT AS RIVER LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW ACTION STAGE NOT YET A PRESSING ISSUE. HOWEVER
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES.

MODELS BEGIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH
RESPECT TO PRESSURE FIELDS AND POP. GFS WAS SHOWING HIGHER
SURFACE WINDS WITH THE COASTAL BARRIER JET COMPARED TO THE NAM AND
EC, BUT SHOWING SIMILAR 850 MB WINDS WITH THE NAM AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE EC. BLENDED CURRENT GRID WITH GFS/NAM AFTER
COORDINATION WITH ANCHORAGE REGARDING INCREASING WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. BY TUE NIGHT BEGAN A BLEND OF GFS AND EC
TO GET DETAILS OF THE MID WEEK LOW. GFS STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS LOW COMPARED TO THE EC BUT MODELS WERE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY. TRANSITIONED TO HPC GUID AS THE LOW
EXITS THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS ABOVE AVERAGE THEN
DROPS WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS TIMING.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-033>035-053.

&&

HANNON/PRB