Small Craft Advisory 861, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING
OVER THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT IS NOW OVER CANADA. THERE
IS ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NE GULF BY
THIS AFTERNOON TO BE JUST SOUTH OF PAYA THIS EVENING THEN LIFT
INTO THE YUKON AS IT DISSIPATES. THERE IS VERY LARGE PRESSURE
RISES ACROSS SE AK AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOLID GALES
OVER LYNN CANAL AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR PAGY AND PAHN.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME HIGH GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS. ALL OF THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING A RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITS SELF AND BEGINS TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE THE WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SE AS THE LOW/WEATHER FRONT DRIFTS NORTH OVER THE
AREA.

THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE AREA ARE MIXED WITH SNOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH THE SHOWERS ARE ALL LIQUID BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN IN STRONG SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPPER OFF
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT STEADY PRECIP WILL
MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN BUT
THE NORTHERN HALF WILL START OUT AS A MIXED OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
THEN AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN
OVER NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 1 INCHES BUT UP
TO 3 INCHES NEAR HAINES AND PAYA AS THEY WILL HOLD ON TO THE COLD
AIR A BIT LONGER.

AS THE LOW MOVES UP INTO THE NE GULF THE WEATHER FRONT WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS
AND PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME HIGH GUSTS ALONG THE REST OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLY
WINDS TO GALES NEAR CROSS SOUND AND OVER AREA 43. THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE THE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
TEMPORARY INCREASE IN THE WINDS GUSTS TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING BUT THEN DIMINISH AFTER MID
NIGHT. THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THEN DIMINISH EARLY SAT MORNING. THE SOUTHERN
WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFTS THIS
EVENING WITH GALES OVER LYNN CANAL. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY
DECREASE WITH THE STRONG WINDS REMAINING OVER LYNN CANAL.

THE LARGE SEA HEIGHTS CURRENTLY BE REPORTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND TO NIGHT TO BE AROUND 15 FT.

USED THE 00Z EC FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES TO OUT
PERFORM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THE REST OF THE FRONTAL
BAND TO MOVE THROUGH AND MAIN PARENT LOW TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS INTO NORTHWEST CANADA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THIS
FEATURE IS LEADING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND MINUS 10 FOR THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.

RAIN OR A MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL GIVE WAY TO SNOW
AS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ON THE SUNDAY...CHRISTMAS
DAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS EVEN IF LATE
IN THE DAY. BELIEVE THAT THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL REMAIN RAIN THROUGH A FEW FLAKES MAY TRY AND WORK THERE WAY
IN. COOL TREND LOOKS TO BE BE TEMPORARY UNTIL THE NEXT LOW ROLLS
IN ON MONDAY...WITH MORE RAIN AND WIND FOR MONDAY. COULD POSSIBLY
BE QUITE WINDY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE FOLLOW ON SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN IS EXPECTED TO
CURVE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY WITH ITS FRONTAL BAND
OF RAIN AND WIND FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT THAT THE
GENERAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL

FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020-021-025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-
     019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041-042-051>053.

&&

ABJ/BEZENEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
754 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 NNW COFFMAN COVE      56.08N 132.88W
12/22/2011                   PKZ036             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            BLASHKE ISLAND HAS A WINDOW BREAK AROUND 9 AM THURSDAY
            DUE TO THE HIGH WINDS.

&&

KAV