Gale Warning 532, NWS Juneau, AK

133 
FZAK52 PAJK 231954 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1054 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-240100-
1054 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE AK WILL DRIFT EAST BY FRI
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL LIFT OVER YAKUTAT TONIGHT AS ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER SE AK. 

$$

PKZ041-240100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1054 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-240100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1054 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO
15 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-240100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1054 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE LATE EVENING. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW...
THEN RAIN. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-240100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1054 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-240100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1054 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO
8 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
344 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...A STORM FORCE LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS
HYDER AND EAGLE CREST. LATE TONIGHT THE MAIN TROUGH WILL PASS
WITH SELY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW FOR A TIME AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
REMAIN STRONG...DESPITE THE LLJ ALONG THE FRONT HAVING PASSED.
RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MIX WITH SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE WAS WIND SPEEDS. MOST
AREAS HAVE SEEN WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PEAK WINDS OF
40 MPH RANGING TO 85 KNOTS AT LINCOLN ROCK. THESE WERE
UNDERESTIMATED BY THE MODELS...SO THAT WAS THE MAIN CHANGES THAT
WERE MADE. OTHERWISE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED AN
ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO UPDATE THE GOING FORECAST. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...ACTIVE STORM TRACK AIMED AT SOUTHEAST AK CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE AK
INTERIOR WRAPPING INTO SOUTHEAST AK NEXT WEEK. WEATHER WILL
REMAIN TO BE WET AND BREEZY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

 FOR FRIDAY EVENING A 980 MB LOW NEAR 50N 150W WILL TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AK GULF AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ALONG OCCLUDED
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AK GULF. THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
JUST NORTH OF YAKUTAT BAY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS
AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN AK GULF THROUGH SAT
EVENING. WITH SOME COLDER AIR MOVING IN WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
BECOME A RAIN SNOW MIX BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. NEXT LOW FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE A
SIMILAR TRACK, MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AK GULF THEN TRACKING
NE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARDS YAKUTAT BAY. REMNANTS OF THIS
LOW BECOME QUASI STATIONARY IN THE NORTHERN GULF TUE INTO WED AS
NEXT SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF.

 MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
WITH NAM BECOMING AN OUTLIER FAIRLY QUICKLY. WHILE GFS
INITIALIZATION WAS A BIT BETTER THAN EC WHEN COMPARING RH TO
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LIKED THE EC INITIALIZATION OVER GFS WHEN
COMPARING SURFACE PRESSURE FEATURES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
00Z MON WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT GULF LOW WITH 00Z GFS
SHOWING A DEEPER LOW CENTER COMPARED TO THE EC. 12Z GFS AND EC
WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT STARTING TO SEE SOME RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE EC. THAT SAID STILL USED THE 12Z TO NUDGE
GRIDS THROUGH DAY 4 THEN TRANSITIONED TO HPC GUID WHICH WAS
WEIGHED TO THE EC ENSEMBLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM THEN DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ020-024-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-027-
     028.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ023-027-028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ021.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031>035-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-051>053.

&&

HANNON/PRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1113 PM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST HYDABURG                55.21N 132.82W
12/22/2011  M63.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

            FIRST OCCURENCE OF WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT 616 AM, SE 43
            GUSTS TO 63 MPH.

0800 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE COFFMAN COVE      56.06N 132.70W
12/22/2011  M108 MPH         PKZ036             AK   BUOY

            LINCOLN ROCK REPORTED A PEAK GUST OF 108 MPH AT 8 AM.
            WIND GUSTS STAYED AROUND 100 MPH FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM.

1115 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.34N 131.65W
12/22/2011  M61.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            AT 853 AM, GUST 61 MPH MEASURED AT KETCHIKAN AIRPORT
            TOWER...ELEVATION 90 FT.

1136 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE HYDABURG           55.20N 132.80W
12/22/2011  M76.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

            HYDABURG SEA PLANE BASE REPORTED A SE WIND 39 MPH GUSTING
            TO 76 MPH AT 1136 AM. WIND GUSTS REMAINED ABOVE 60 MPH AT
            HYDABURG SEA PLANE BASE FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM.

0336 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ESE METLAKATLA          55.12N 132.57W
12/22/2011  M58.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

            METLAKATLA SEA PLANE BASE REPORTED A SOUTHEAST PEAK WIND
            OF 58 MPH AT 336 PM.

0453 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W KETCHIKAN           55.34N 131.70W
12/22/2011  M69.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

            KETCHIKAN AIRPORT ROOF WIND REPORTED A SOUTHEAST PEAK
            WIND 69 MPH AT 5 PM.

0510 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 S METLAKATLA          55.04N 132.57W
12/22/2011  M61.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

            ANNETTE ISLAND AIRPORT REPORTED A SOUTHEAST PEAK WIND OF
            61 MPH AT 5 PM.

&&

NCB