Small Craft Advisory 829, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
239 PM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...REMNANTS OF THE DYING FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE
HEAVIER SNOW RATES IN THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST TO BE TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...SO THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE
LIKELY GOING WAY AT EXPIRATION TIME. BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
OVER NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS IN CENTRAL GULF AND NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE MORE
VIGOROUS THAN THE ONE FOR TODAY.

 PREFRONTAL SNOW/RAIN TO START IN THE NORTHEAST GULF LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL RAIN MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING THERE AND
TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. POTENTIALLY SOME
GUSTY WINDS FOR EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS BUT THINK THEY WILL BE
REMAINING UNDER 35 MPH. AS THIS FRONT WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER
BETTER SNOW OR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN YAKUTAT AREA DURING THE DAY AND MIXING/CHANGING OVER FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE AREAS LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROF REMAINING OVER THE BERING
SEA AND N-CENTRAL PAC AND A RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN PAC AND WRN
CANADA. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. ENDED
UP USING THE 12Z ECMWF FOR 00Z FRI TO 06Z SUN...THEN HPC FROM 12Z
SAT ON OUT. THE ECMWF WAS FITTING THE SATELLITE FEATURES THE BEST
THAT WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON OUR AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT. HPC
USED COMPROMISE OF ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TRY TO GET
BEST MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION ON SYSTEMS MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THINGS ON THE MILD AND WET SIDE.

 FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA
ALOFT  THU NIGHT BUT LOWER LEVELS OF FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE
COAST. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NE INTO THE NE GULF ON FRI.
WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL ENERGY GOING INLAND THU NIGHT...PRECIP
WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT BUT LOWER CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE HAS US FOR THU NIGHT MINS...AND BOOSTED MIN TEMPS THEN
TO REFLECT THIS. MORE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FRI AS LOW AND ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT SWINGS NE THRU THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD PICK UP
THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF THE INITIAL FRONT AND SWEEP IT INLAND
FRI NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER FRI NIGHT AS WELL.

 NEXT MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IN SUN/MON TIME FRAME. IT WILL BE A
WARM ONE SO ENDED UP RAISING TEMPS SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY THE MIN
TEMPS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN OVER THE
AREA ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD FALL OVER THE FAR N. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MORE ENERGETIC AS WELL WITH MAIN SFC LOW MOVING CLOSER TO
THE AREA THAN THE EARLIER SYSTEM AND A STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THRU THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM AREA WIDE AS
WELL WITH A DEEP LAYER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE FRONT
BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH TIME...SLOWING ITS
EWD MOVEMENT AS IT COMES IN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-033>036-041.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT