Gale Warning 503, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Dec 15, 2011, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Dec 15, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

562 
FZAK52 PAJK 151241
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A 995 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING 21 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 14, 2:39 PM AKST, 13 hours 21 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
239 PM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...REMNANTS OF THE DYING FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE
HEAVIER SNOW RATES IN THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST TO BE TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...SO THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE
LIKELY GOING WAY AT EXPIRATION TIME. BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE
REGION AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
OVER NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS IN CENTRAL GULF AND NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE MORE
VIGOROUS THAN THE ONE FOR TODAY.

 PREFRONTAL SNOW/RAIN TO START IN THE NORTHEAST GULF LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL RAIN MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING THERE AND
TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. POTENTIALLY SOME
GUSTY WINDS FOR EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS BUT THINK THEY WILL BE
REMAINING UNDER 35 MPH. AS THIS FRONT WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER
BETTER SNOW OR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN YAKUTAT AREA DURING THE DAY AND MIXING/CHANGING OVER FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE AREAS LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROF REMAINING OVER THE BERING
SEA AND N-CENTRAL PAC AND A RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN PAC AND WRN
CANADA. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. ENDED
UP USING THE 12Z ECMWF FOR 00Z FRI TO 06Z SUN...THEN HPC FROM 12Z
SAT ON OUT. THE ECMWF WAS FITTING THE SATELLITE FEATURES THE BEST
THAT WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON OUR AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT. HPC
USED COMPROMISE OF ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS TO TRY TO GET
BEST MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION ON SYSTEMS MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THINGS ON THE MILD AND WET SIDE.

 FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA
ALOFT  THU NIGHT BUT LOWER LEVELS OF FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE
COAST. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NE INTO THE NE GULF ON FRI.
WITH MOST OF THE FRONTAL ENERGY GOING INLAND THU NIGHT...PRECIP
WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT BUT LOWER CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE HAS US FOR THU NIGHT MINS...AND BOOSTED MIN TEMPS THEN
TO REFLECT THIS. MORE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN FRI AS LOW AND ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT SWINGS NE THRU THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD PICK UP
THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF THE INITIAL FRONT AND SWEEP IT INLAND
FRI NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER FRI NIGHT AS WELL.

 NEXT MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IN SUN/MON TIME FRAME. IT WILL BE A
WARM ONE SO ENDED UP RAISING TEMPS SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY THE MIN
TEMPS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN OVER THE
AREA ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD FALL OVER THE FAR N. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MORE ENERGETIC AS WELL WITH MAIN SFC LOW MOVING CLOSER TO
THE AREA THAN THE EARLIER SYSTEM AND A STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THRU THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM AREA WIDE AS
WELL WITH A DEEP LAYER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE FRONT
BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW WITH TIME...SLOWING ITS
EWD MOVEMENT AS IT COMES IN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-033>036-041.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.