Small Craft Advisory 741, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
355 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

.SHORT TERM...ARCTIC FRONT IS OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AND WILL
REMAIN THERE THROUGH SAT. A SMALL LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT
OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF AND WILL MOVE SE ALONG THE
FRONT...REACHING JUST W OF DIXON ENTRANCE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SWD INTO THE NRN AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND SAT. USED THE 18Z NAM FOR THE WAY IT HANDLED THE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE LOW MOVING SEWD ALONG THE
FRONT.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CLOUDS/PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS.
A SC DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS S PAJN
AREA...WITH A LARGER HOLE OVER ERN ZONES 26 AND 29. THIS CLOUD
BAND WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN START TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE NNW SAT. ONLY PRECIP
ATTM IS IN THE NE GULF AREA NE OF THE SFC LOW...AS OVERRUNNING IS
OCCURRING THERE. AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD...THE PRECIP
WILL HEAD SE WITH IT AND THE SFC LOW. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
GENERALLY OFFSHORE...BUT IT MAY JUST GRAZE THE OUTER COASTAL AREA
AS THE LOW TRACKS SE THRU THE ERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN IS S PASI...SO WILL PUT IN A LOW POP FOR THE COAST S OF
PASI FOR TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. WILL KEEP SOME SNOW IN THE PAYA
AREA BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATE EVENING. MAY GET ANOTHER INCH THERE.

 AS FOR WINDS...THE PRES GRADIENT IS AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM RIGHT
NOW BUT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SAT. WILL HAVE WINDS INCREASING
IN MOST INNER CHANNEL AREAS...WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW INTO THE NE
GULF. WILL LIKELY HAVE GALES FOR MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL
INNER CHANNELS SAT...WITH SCA FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS. WILL HAVE AT LEAST GALE FORCE OUTFLOW INTO THE NE GULF
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL...GIVEN
HOW COLD TEMPS WILL REMAIN DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...COLD AND WINDY WEATHER STILL THE THE PRIMARY ISSUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE GULF WILL BE
DEVELOPING A LOW TO IMPACT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL CONFUSED ON TRACK AND POSITIONS
STARTING TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO BE
OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL BE WATCHING THAT
AS IT COULD RESULT IN A FAIR OVERRUNNING SITUATION ... BUT FOR
NOW IT SEEMS MARGINAL.

A POLAR LOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND ANCHOR IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AROUND MID WEEK AND THE MODELS SHOWING A SURFACE LOW
IN THAT REGION OF THE GULF. IN THAT POSITION THERE IS A FAIRLY
SHORT FETCH FOR TH COLD AIR BEING PULLED BACK INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH FEATURES
ROTATING ABOUT IT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME DUE
TO POOR CONSENSUS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033>035-043-052-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK