Gale Warning 429, NWS Juneau, AK

988 
FZAK52 PAJK 191249
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-200100-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE YUKON PUSHING
ARCTIC AIR INTO SE ALASKA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A WEAK LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE SE SAT. OUTLOOK. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE N
INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-200100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL LATE. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-200100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-200100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-200100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-200100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
355 PM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

.SHORT TERM...ARCTIC FRONT IS OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AND WILL
REMAIN THERE THROUGH SAT. A SMALL LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT
OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF AND WILL MOVE SE ALONG THE
FRONT...REACHING JUST W OF DIXON ENTRANCE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SWD INTO THE NRN AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND SAT. USED THE 18Z NAM FOR THE WAY IT HANDLED THE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE LOW MOVING SEWD ALONG THE
FRONT.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE CLOUDS/PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS.
A SC DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS S PAJN
AREA...WITH A LARGER HOLE OVER ERN ZONES 26 AND 29. THIS CLOUD
BAND WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN START TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE NNW SAT. ONLY PRECIP
ATTM IS IN THE NE GULF AREA NE OF THE SFC LOW...AS OVERRUNNING IS
OCCURRING THERE. AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD...THE PRECIP
WILL HEAD SE WITH IT AND THE SFC LOW. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
GENERALLY OFFSHORE...BUT IT MAY JUST GRAZE THE OUTER COASTAL AREA
AS THE LOW TRACKS SE THRU THE ERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN IS S PASI...SO WILL PUT IN A LOW POP FOR THE COAST S OF
PASI FOR TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. WILL KEEP SOME SNOW IN THE PAYA
AREA BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATE EVENING. MAY GET ANOTHER INCH THERE.

 AS FOR WINDS...THE PRES GRADIENT IS AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM RIGHT
NOW BUT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SAT. WILL HAVE WINDS INCREASING
IN MOST INNER CHANNEL AREAS...WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW INTO THE NE
GULF. WILL LIKELY HAVE GALES FOR MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL
INNER CHANNELS SAT...WITH SCA FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING INNER
CHANNELS. WILL HAVE AT LEAST GALE FORCE OUTFLOW INTO THE NE GULF
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL...GIVEN
HOW COLD TEMPS WILL REMAIN DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...COLD AND WINDY WEATHER STILL THE THE PRIMARY ISSUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE GULF WILL BE
DEVELOPING A LOW TO IMPACT THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL CONFUSED ON TRACK AND POSITIONS
STARTING TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST TO BE
OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL BE WATCHING THAT
AS IT COULD RESULT IN A FAIR OVERRUNNING SITUATION ... BUT FOR
NOW IT SEEMS MARGINAL.

A POLAR LOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND ANCHOR IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AROUND MID WEEK AND THE MODELS SHOWING A SURFACE LOW
IN THAT REGION OF THE GULF. IN THAT POSITION THERE IS A FAIRLY
SHORT FETCH FOR TH COLD AIR BEING PULLED BACK INTO THE WESTERN
GULF AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH FEATURES
ROTATING ABOUT IT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME DUE
TO POOR CONSENSUS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033>035-043-052-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK