Small Craft Advisory 707, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
532 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 982 MB LOW
NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHEASTWARD. A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SOUTH SMALL
CRAFT WIND INCREASES OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. ROUGH SEAS AROUND 11 FEET PERSIST OVER
THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS. AHEAD OF THE INCOMING OCCLUDED
FRONT...RAIN/SNOW OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE WITH SNOW
OVER THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG ALSO PREVAILS SOME PLACES
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
GRIDS WITH THE NAM AND GFS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
WEAKEN AND DRIFT FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. EMBEDDED AIR
MASS IS RELATIVELY WARM AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING OVER YAKUTAT AREA AND THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CANADA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
GULF...PRODUCING TIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL
CRAFT WINDS/SEAS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE GALE WILL EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN 50 AND 60 NORTH IS
THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A
SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE GULF ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS FLATTENED BY A
SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF. LONGER RANGE
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BREAKING DOWN WITH A SHORT WAVE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AROUND MIDWEEK. LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
I CONTINUED TO FOLLOW ALONG THE PLANS OF THE HPC GUIDANCE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONG DEVELOPING LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND OF
ALASKA...AND A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY MORNING. THE LAND WAS TO USE A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
INITIAL COLD POOL OF AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY IS LIMITED AS
THE COLD AIR FIRST HAD TO WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE PARENT LOW THAT
WAS NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND... BUT THIS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND PANHANDLE DURING SUNDAY. WHICH WILL COOL
EVERYTHING DOWN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING WILL
HAVE A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF... AND
THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE TIME FRAME.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033>036-041-051.

&&

AHN/BEZENEK