Gale Warning 372, NWS Juneau, AK

353 
FZAK67 PAJK 100733 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1033 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-110145-
1033 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A LOW OVER HAIDA GWAII WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ310-110145-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1033 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W GALE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

371 
FZAK67 PAJK 101225
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-110100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE THU EVENING THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT SE
INTO B.C. THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH TONIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-110100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. W SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THE CLOUD
SHIELD EXTENDING NORTH NEAR PAPG. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE IS
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR PAYA WITH STEADY RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ON THE DRY SIDE
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT FROM THE NNW. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT BUT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THEY
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE S THROUGH TONIGHT.

 AS THE LOW FROM THE WEST DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF A STRONG
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND BE
OVER THE PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON. AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE RAIN BUT
THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL START OUT AS SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS
FROM 1-3 INCHES BEFORE THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN A CHANGES TO RAIN.
THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD FROM VERY
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE WINDS OVER THE
GULF WILL INCREASE FROM THE SE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO BE
MAX SMALL CRAFT BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST ONCE THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DRIFTS EAST. A LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT BY THE AFTERNOON NEAR CROSS SOUND. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE DAY TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS WITH MIN GALE IN AREA 36. LAND AREAS WILL SEE THE
WINDS FROM THE SE TO BE FROM 10 TO 20 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGH
GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS ALONG THE COAST. BY THE AFTERNOON THE
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THEM AND MAY SEE GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

 USED A BLEND OF THE EC/GEM/UKMET FOR THE NEXT 24HRS AS THEY WERE
HOLDING THE FRONT BACK SOME AND WAS SHOWING THE TRIPLE POINT
FEATURE WELL. THE NEW GFS AND NAM IS NOW SHOWING THE SAME KIND OF
SOLUTION SO THERE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
FOR THE FIRST 24HRS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FOR THURSDAY EVENING THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLE COAST AND BEGIN TO DRIFT A BIT TO
THE SOUTH THEN MOVING EAST TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. PRECIP WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND WITH COLD AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND
RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW.
HAINES AND THE HAINES HIGHWAY COULD SEE SOME HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMULATION BUT PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE LOW WILL CLEAR CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS. WITH THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS
PRECIP MAY SEE SOME ICY ROADS FOR THE FRIDAY COMMUTE. THE NEXT LOW
WILL DEVELOP THE WESTERN AK GULF FROM TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH A 960 MB LOW IN THE BERING SEA 06Z SAT. THE LOW WILL TRACK
EAST WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING THE PANHANDLE BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z SAT. EC HAS KEPT THIS LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE GFS
HAS BEGUN TO TRACK IT FURTHER SOUTH FROM RUN TO RUN. GFS NOW
INDICATED A DEEPER LOW CENTER NEARING 965 MB WHILE THE EC HAS
KEPT THE CENTER NEAR 971 MB. MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE STRENGTH OF
WINDS IN THE AK GULF...FOR NOW BLENDED TOWARD THE HIGHER GFS
SOLUTION. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKING AT ANOTHER COLD AIR
MASS PUSHING EAST WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEARING -10C. WITH MORE ZONAL
FLOW NEXT LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AK INTERIOR WITH A
QUASI STATIONARY LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND DIFFERENCES RUN TO RUN LOOK
MINOR AT FIRST GLANCE BUT THESE INCONSISTENCIES ARE CAUSING FAIR
DIFFERENCES IN THE PRACTICAL FORECAST. WHILE THE EC WAS THE LEAST
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN PREVIOUS DAYS NOW THE GFS IS SHOWING
INCREASED JUMPS FORM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE EC HAS BECOME A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AK
GULF 12Z SAT. USED A BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET FOR THE START OF
THE LONG TERM THEN TRANSITIONED IN SOME 12Z GFS TO MATCH BETTER
WITH THE ANCHORAGE BORDER...AS THEY HAD THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EC WITH WINDS A BIT STRONGER. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
SWITCHED TO THE NEW HPC GRIDS...WHICH WAS A BIT CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF BUT STILL MORE OF A SUPER BLEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031>035-041>043-051-052.

&&

ABJ/PRB