Small Craft Advisory 514, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
542 AM AKDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...MAP ANALYSIS: A LOW ABOUT 100 NM EAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND AT 995 MB. THE MAIN FRONT HAS MOVE IN LAND OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT EXTENDS SOUTH BACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PACIFIC THERE IS A WAVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRONT AT ROUGHLY
50N/140W. THE WRAP AROUND FEATURE ON THE FRONT RUNS FORM WESTERN
KODIAK ISLAND AROUND THE LOW TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AS WELL. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF PRESSURE IS OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST AND
NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL IS IS FROM ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND SOUTH THE NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THEN TO COLD BAY AND
THEN ARCS WEST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

 FORECAST REASONING: FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING ARE
NOT TO FAR OUT OF AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. HAD A PREFERENCE TO
USE THE 00Z GFS FOR ADJUSTMENTS TODAY. THE WAVE ON THE FRONT OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE MAKING
LANDFALL ABOUT PORT ALEXANDER THAN TO NORTH OF PETERSBURG BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 21Z AND 03Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING. AM USING HEAVY
AT TIMES PHRASING WITH THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH ALMOST AN INCH TO NEARLY
2 POSSIBLE LOCAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AN EVENING. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO BE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
LOW EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY A NEW LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA HEADED TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

 GALE FORCE WINDS IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL ENDING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE DECISION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
OTHERWISE AM NOT EXPECTED STRONG WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING WET WITH CONTINUED RAIN
OR SHOWERS INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. A FEW MINOR TROUGHS WILL BE
ROLLING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FOR SUN AND MON BEFORE THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR MON NIGHT. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
STILL SUFFERING AS THEY CAN'T DECIDED ON STRENGTH OR POSITION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN GULF. THEY START OUT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SW GULF, BUT THEN THE
EC BEGINS WEAKENING THE STORM MUCH FASTER THEN EITHER THE GFS OR
NAM DO. THE RESULT IS THAT WHEN THE ASSOCIATED FRONT GETS TO THE
PANHANDLE THERE IS A CHOICE BETWEEN STORM FORCE OR LOW GALE IN
THE NORTHERN GULF AND WINDY OR BREEZY ALONG THE OUTER COAST
MONDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE WINDIER GFS DUE TO GOOD
INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY.

 THE HYDROLOGY PICTURE IS NOT LOOKING PRETTY AS THE FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WITH A SHOT OF TROPICAL AIR ALREADY IN
THE SYSTEM WHEN IT WAS FORMING COMBINED WITH A GOOD TROPICAL
CONNECTION, 6-HOUR QPF VALUES ARE PUSHING OVER HALF AN INCH IN
SOME CASES EARLY TUESDAY. AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ON THE
RISE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP DOES NOT APPEAR TO
MOVE OUT UNTIL TUES AFTERNOON.

 MODEL AGREEMENT GETS WORSE AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. THIS TIME THEY
ARE DEBATING ON WHERE THE LEFT OVER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS GOING TO
SET UP. THE EC IS FAVORING A SCENARIO THAT KEEPS IT POINTED AT
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THURS BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THOSE
AREAS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SENDS IT FARTHER SOUTH TO STALL
BETWEEN HAIDA GWAII...FORMERLY THE CHARLOTTES...AND VANCOUVER
ISLAND RESULTING IN MUCH LESS RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE WED AND THURS. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE SW FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE WET WEATHER TO
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THEN DROPS TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-041-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-042-043-051.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL