Gale Warning 268, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
537 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...RAIN SPREADING E TODAY AND EXTEND TO OUR ENTIRE
AOR THIS EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE MAXIMUM GALES IN PKZ51
AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH IN PUBLIC ZONE 17. MOST NOTABLE
CHANGE TO THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS THE EXTENDING THE GALES
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCLUDE PKZ 42. OTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE ARE RELATIVELY SMALL. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

A 988 MB LOW ABOUT 120 NM SE OF PADQ IS THE CENTER OF A LARGE-SCALE
CYCLOGENETIC SYSTEM THAT ALREADY MATTERS TO THE WHOLE GULF. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AMPLIFIED A RIDGE ALOFT THAT AT THE 500H EXTENDS N TO
OVER A PASI-PAGY LN. THAT RIDGE ALOFT IS MOVG E AND WILL PASS THE
COASTAL MTN RANGE BY 00Z. A FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT SHOULD BE
OCCURRING AT ABOUT 200 NM S OF PACV AT THIS TIME, WITH THE
MATURING OCFNT MOVING ONSHORE THE OUTER COAST ABOUT 06Z.

THE ONSET OF RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD SPREAD E TO A PAJN - PASI
LINE ABOUT 21Z, AND FINALLY REACH OUR ENTIRE AOR THIS EVENING.

THE ASSOCD WINDS SHOULD REACH GALE FOR ALL OF OUR OUTSIDE WATERS
EXCEPT S OF CAPE DECISION, ALBEIT THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL NOT
REACH THE OUTER COAST LINE FROM PASI S. NOTE THE BARRIER FLOW
ENHANCEMENT FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OF KENAI
PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL BE THROUGH MUCH OF  SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BUT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AREAS
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY IS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA REGION. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND ONSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM THE FAR EAST OF RUSSIAN
INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND SPIN UP A NEW LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND ON SUNDAY THAT LOOKS TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE WESTERN
GULF BUT ROTATING ABOUT THAT REGION THROUGH EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE LARGE CLOSED LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED IN THAT AREA. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 950S. A FRONTAL BAND WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AND ZONES ON MONDAY.

IN THE FAR LONG RAN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. ESSENTIALLY
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH A BIT OF THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THE FORECAST
PLANNING. ALL IN ALL THE WET PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

HYDRO...WE ARE STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION
AS RIGHT NOW 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY AT TIMES WORDING IN
THE ZONES FOR A FAIR PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. WHEN THE SECOND
LOWS FRONT MOVES IN FOR MONDAY THIS SYSTEM AS WELL MAY HAVE TAPPED
INTO TO SOME MID TROPIC MOISTURE SO ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING POSSIBLE
THEN TOO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... AND DROPS
TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-033>036-041.

&&

JBT/BEZENEK