Small Craft Advisory 403, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKDT MON JUL 4 2011

.SHORT TERM /MON NIGHT AND TUE/...THIS MORNINGS MODEL SOLUTIONS
WERE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WELL DEVELOPED LOW OVER THE
GULF WEST SOUTHWEST OF SITKA NEAR 140W. IT HAD REACHED ITS DEEPEST
THIS MORNING AND HAD BEGUN TO SLOWLY FILL. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BAND REACHING OUT TO BE JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...
WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS.

THE EXPECT THE WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BAND WILL
ARC BACK AROUND TOWARDS BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLAND WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY... AND A BURST OF WINDS AS WELL.
SO HAVE KEPT SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THOSE AREAS.

GALE FORCE WINDS YET THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
(041>043) AND CLARENCE STRAIT AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF 310
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT. A LARGE PORTION OF THE INNER
WATERS WILL SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY TUE. HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES
FOR PRINCE OF WALES AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUES NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER OF CLOUDS AND RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW GRADUALLY
FILLS AND MOVES TO THE SE THROUGH THURSDAY CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A BIT SLOWER WITH LATEST
MODEL RUNS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH PRECIP FURTHER AND CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE AS WELL WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS...MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF...THURS THROUGH SAT. BY LATER SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE PANHANDLE TURNING WINDS MORE ONSHORE AND INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP AGAIN.

NUMERICAL MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...RESULTING IN
AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH THE
GOING FORECAST INITIALLY. THIS WORKED WELL FOR PRESSURE AROUND THE
LOW BECAUSE THE NAM WAS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND DEEPER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE. OTHERWISE
TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS AND HPC FOR LATER PERIODS...WHICH HAD VERY
SIMILAR PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE MOVING ON SHORE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>035-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

   /