Small Craft Advisory 298, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
232 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE PANHANDLE REMAINS MOSTLY WET PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH MOIST MARINE
AIR INTO THE AREA. PRECIP HAS SWITCHED TO A MOSTLY STRATIFORM
SCENARIO BUT THERE ARE A FEW STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
EMBEDDED AS EVIDENCED BY THE ICE PELLETS REPORTED AT YAKUTAT AND
PETERSBURG SO FAR TODAY. OTHER WISE PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT WITH SOME AREAS REPORTING SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN RELATIVELY LOW WITH ONLY
CROSS SOUND AND LYNN CANAL BEING THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE.
CROSS SOUND IS CURRENTLY BLOWING OUT OF THE WEST AT 20 KT WHILE
ELDRED ROCK HAS 25 KT SMALL CRAFT WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUT IN THE GULF, SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL TWO FEATURES THAT WILL
BE AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT DAY.
FEATURE NUMBER ONE IS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. FEATURE IS WEAK AND WILL MOSTLY RESULT IN AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER COAST. PLACES
FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND MAY JUST SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS IT
FIGHTS AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE. FEATURE NUMBER TWO IS
A STRONGER FRONTAL BAND THAT IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE WIND
THAT IT IS BRINGING WITH IT. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE
PUBLIC ZONES OUT OF THIS, BUT THE OFFSHORE AND OUTER COASTAL ZONES
WILL SEE AT LEAST 25 KT SMALL CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THIS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GALES IN THE OFFSHORE AND MARINE ZONE 52.

IN THE INNER CHANNEL, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND TO MAKE IT
THERE YET AS THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE PERSISTING OVER THE
PANHANDLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL STILL BE AT WORK THOUGH.
MOST INNER CHANNEL AREAS WILL STILL SEE LESS THEN 20 KT OF WIND,
BUT NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL REMAIN BLOWING AT SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

MODELS TODAY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEW IF ANY DIFFERENCES
NOTED. DECIDED TO UPDATE GRIDS WITH A BLEND TO GFS AND NAM IN THE
SHORT RANGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FORECASTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE RIDGE STALLED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA ESSENTIALLY HOLDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA...ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT ENERGY WILL TRY TO
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF CAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE FLOW EXPECTED
TO BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY THEN. THIS FLOW WILL MOVE THE RAINFALL
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... MAINLY YAKUTAT AND WEST WITH SOME
RAIN MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL REGIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH FRONT TRYING TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THINK THAT RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY THROUGH MONDAY. DRIES LOCATION AS USUAL
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SKAGWAY REGION. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST
INTO MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH BEST CHANCE OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL SECTIONS.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY IS SHOWING GALE FORCE OF
THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM ROUGHLY PKZ042
TO PKZ052. CONFIDENCE FACTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS ABOVE AVERAGE
AND WITH THE LARGER VARIATIONS OF THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY EVENING
LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041>043-051.

&&

EAL/BEZENEK