Gale Warning 211, NWS Juneau, AK

551 
FZAK67 PAJK 221134
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-230100-
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE GULF AND
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A
FRONT WILL REACH SE AK SUN. 

$$

PKZ310-230100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

741 
FZAK67 PAJK 222325
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-231400-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AND TRACK NORTH TOWARDS KODIAK THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADA WILL
WEAKEN IN PLACE. 

$$

PKZ310-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

193 
FZAK67 PAJK 231150
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-240100-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
SLOWLY NE...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TO THE OUTER COAST OF SE
ALASKA BY SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-240100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

247 
FZAK67 PAJK 232318
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-241400-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.  

$$

PKZ310-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
232 PM AKDT THU APR 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE PANHANDLE REMAINS MOSTLY WET PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH MOIST MARINE
AIR INTO THE AREA. PRECIP HAS SWITCHED TO A MOSTLY STRATIFORM
SCENARIO BUT THERE ARE A FEW STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
EMBEDDED AS EVIDENCED BY THE ICE PELLETS REPORTED AT YAKUTAT AND
PETERSBURG SO FAR TODAY. OTHER WISE PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT WITH SOME AREAS REPORTING SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN RELATIVELY LOW WITH ONLY
CROSS SOUND AND LYNN CANAL BEING THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE.
CROSS SOUND IS CURRENTLY BLOWING OUT OF THE WEST AT 20 KT WHILE
ELDRED ROCK HAS 25 KT SMALL CRAFT WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUT IN THE GULF, SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL TWO FEATURES THAT WILL
BE AFFECTING THE WEATHER OVER THE PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT DAY.
FEATURE NUMBER ONE IS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. FEATURE IS WEAK AND WILL MOSTLY RESULT IN AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER COAST. PLACES
FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND MAY JUST SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS IT
FIGHTS AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE. FEATURE NUMBER TWO IS
A STRONGER FRONTAL BAND THAT IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE WIND
THAT IT IS BRINGING WITH IT. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE
PUBLIC ZONES OUT OF THIS, BUT THE OFFSHORE AND OUTER COASTAL ZONES
WILL SEE AT LEAST 25 KT SMALL CRAFT WINDS OUT OF THIS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GALES IN THE OFFSHORE AND MARINE ZONE 52.

IN THE INNER CHANNEL, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND TO MAKE IT
THERE YET AS THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE PERSISTING OVER THE
PANHANDLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL STILL BE AT WORK THOUGH.
MOST INNER CHANNEL AREAS WILL STILL SEE LESS THEN 20 KT OF WIND,
BUT NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL REMAIN BLOWING AT SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

MODELS TODAY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEW IF ANY DIFFERENCES
NOTED. DECIDED TO UPDATE GRIDS WITH A BLEND TO GFS AND NAM IN THE
SHORT RANGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FORECASTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE RIDGE STALLED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA ESSENTIALLY HOLDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA...ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT ENERGY WILL TRY TO
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF CAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE FLOW EXPECTED
TO BE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY THEN. THIS FLOW WILL MOVE THE RAINFALL
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST... MAINLY YAKUTAT AND WEST WITH SOME
RAIN MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL REGIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH FRONT TRYING TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THINK THAT RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY THROUGH MONDAY. DRIES LOCATION AS USUAL
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SKAGWAY REGION. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST
INTO MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH BEST CHANCE OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL SECTIONS.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY IS SHOWING GALE FORCE OF
THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM ROUGHLY PKZ042
TO PKZ052. CONFIDENCE FACTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS ABOVE AVERAGE
AND WITH THE LARGER VARIATIONS OF THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY EVENING
LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041>043-051.

&&

EAL/BEZENEK