Small Craft Advisory 24, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
257 PM AKST THU JAN 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL LOW CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE RESIDUAL OVER THE
GULF WEAKENS INTO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE. SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END
FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM OVERNIGHT TO
EARLY FRIDAY.

 A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. I WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A START TO
CLEARING OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

 MODEL AGREEMENTS WERE FAIRLY GOOD TODAY OVER THE SHORT TERM. I
USED THE NAM SOLUTION FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT OVERALL ADJUSTMENT WERE
MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...ENTERING A PERIOD OF DRY COLD AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY
WEATHER NEXT WEEK. STRONG BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILD OVER
WESTERN ALASKA EARLY THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF 3 ARCTIC HIGHS WILL
DROP SOUTH JUST TO EAST OF PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK...EACH
WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SET UP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TO KEEP MODERATELY STRONG
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE FIRST HIGH ARRIVES LATE SAT-SUN AND WILL INCREASE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS TO MAX GALE. CONDITIONS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR TAKU
WINDS AS WELL ACT TO MODERATE TEMPS. DID HAVE TO RAISE HI TEMPS
UP A BIT TO KEEP AT LOW END OF ENSEMBLE MOS.

UPDATED GRIDS WITH NAM12 THROUGH DAY 3 AND USED HPC GUIDANCE
BEYOND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-041>043-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/MM