Gale Warning 30, NWS Juneau, AK

264 
FZAK51 PAJK 071838 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-080100-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN CANADA.  

$$

PKZ011-080100-
GLACIER BAY-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT AT
THE HEAD OF THE BAY. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-080100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-080100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-080100-
ICY STRAIT-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. HIGHEST WINDS WEST OF GLACIER BAY. SEAS
7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. HIGHEST WINDS WEST OF GLACIER BAY.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-080100-
CROSS SOUND-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. 
GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR CAPE SPENCER LATE.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-080100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-080100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-080100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-080100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

UPDATED

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-080100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-080100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
936 AM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
257 PM AKST THU JAN 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL LOW CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE RESIDUAL OVER THE
GULF WEAKENS INTO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE. SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SHOULD TAPER OFF AND END
FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM OVERNIGHT TO
EARLY FRIDAY.

 A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. I WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A START TO
CLEARING OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

 MODEL AGREEMENTS WERE FAIRLY GOOD TODAY OVER THE SHORT TERM. I
USED THE NAM SOLUTION FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT OVERALL ADJUSTMENT WERE
MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...ENTERING A PERIOD OF DRY COLD AND LOCALLY VERY WINDY
WEATHER NEXT WEEK. STRONG BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILD OVER
WESTERN ALASKA EARLY THIS WEEK. A SERIES OF 3 ARCTIC HIGHS WILL
DROP SOUTH JUST TO EAST OF PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK...EACH
WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SET UP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TO KEEP MODERATELY STRONG
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE FIRST HIGH ARRIVES LATE SAT-SUN AND WILL INCREASE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS TO MAX GALE. CONDITIONS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR TAKU
WINDS AS WELL ACT TO MODERATE TEMPS. DID HAVE TO RAISE HI TEMPS
UP A BIT TO KEEP AT LOW END OF ENSEMBLE MOS.

UPDATED GRIDS WITH NAM12 THROUGH DAY 3 AND USED HPC GUIDANCE
BEYOND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-041>043-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/MM