Small Craft Advisory 13, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 4, 2011, 11:30 AM AKST (20:30 UTC)

Expired

Jan 4, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

746 
FZAK51 PAJK 042035 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1130 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-050100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND MOVE TO THE FAR SE
GULF WED MORNING...THEN N AND INLAND NEAR SITKA BY EARLY WED
EVENING. 

$$

PKZ011-050100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-050100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
935 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-050100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-050100-
ICY STRAIT-
935 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-050100-
CROSS SOUND-
935 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
7 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-050100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1130 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-050100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1130 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-050100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1130 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 16 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-050100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1130 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011

UPDATED 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-050100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1130 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-050100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1130 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 4, 5:39 AM AKST, 5 hours 51 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
539 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE PAC AND MOVE NE
TOWARD THE FAR SE GULF TONIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE NE TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND BY THIS EVENING.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN PRECIP. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE
AREA TODAY...AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND IT WILL WEAKEN FOR
MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER LYNN CANAL...WHERE SLY
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE
THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS STRONG SW
FLOW AROUND 700 MB. 700 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SW 30-40 KT
BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE SLY SFC PRES GRADIENT AND AM EXPECTING ADVY LEVEL
WINDS TO DEVELOP AROUND PAGY LATE THIS MORNING...CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING WHEN FLOW ALOFT SHOULD START BACKING IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE SE GULF. WILL BE ISSUING WIND ADVY FOR
PAGY FOR THE 18Z-06Z PERIOD TODAY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE
DECREASING EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVYS
FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM THIS MORNING. WILL STILL
HAVE BREEZY TO WINDY THOUGH FOR SOME PLACES...MAINLY FOR THE
MORNING HOURS.

 AS FOR PRECIP...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SPOTTY
PRECIP GOING EVEN AFTER FROPA TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL
TREND A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME
MORE STRATIFORM LATER TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD SE GULF. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AND KEEP STRATIFORM
TERMINOLOGY THRU TONIGHT. MAY BE A DECENT BREAK OVER THE SRN AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS
MOVES THRU...SO POPS THERE DROP OFF SOMEWHAT DURING THAT TIME. AT
THIS POINT AM EXPECTING PTYPE TO REMAIN RAIN ALTHOUGH HYDER MAY
HAVE SOME SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY WARM UP. AIRMASS BEHIND
FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD SO EXPECT PTYPE TO REMAIN RAIN AT SEA
LEVEL TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
INCLUDE A FAST MOVING GALE FORCE LOW EARLY ON...AND A RETURN OF
COLDER TEMPS BEGINNING NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE DEVELOPING GALE IS STILL AN OPEN WAVE ALONG AN EXISTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG 160W WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF. A
SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL CLOSE OFF LATER TODAY AND BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL BE JUST ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
GULF AND TRACKING NORTHEAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MARINE ZONES AND
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW ITSELF WILL BE JUST ABOUT FULLY OCCLUDED BY THE
TIME IT ARRIVES OVER THE OUTER COAST VICINITY SITKA AND WILL FILL
RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. AS A CONSEQUENCE...SURFACE WILL
WILL DIMINISH JUST ABOUT AS ABRUPTLY AS THEY INCREASED...SO
ASSOCIATED GALES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...AND POSSIBLY WIND
ADVISORIES...WILL BE SHORT LIVED EVENTS. LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOT THAT LARGE AND WHAT
LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SNOW WILL RE-
ENTER THE FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE
LINGERING PRECIP WINDS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND THAT TIME...COLD LOW LEVEL AIR RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLE AS
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE GULF TIPS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND GENERATES LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BEGINNING THIS NEXT WEEKEND. AM EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID
20S NEAR THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO MID 30S NEAR THE OUTER COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ALONG SIMILAR SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTIONS. IN ADDITION TO DRYING THE PANHANDLE OUT...THE
OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING US SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR A COLD...CLEAR...AND DRY WEEKEND.

USED ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PRESSURE AND
WINDS. BLENDED VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM FOR POP.
NUDGED TEMPS TOWARDS GFS ENSEMBLE VALUES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-034>036-041>043-051.

&&

RWT/FRITSCH

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2011Every small craft advisory in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.