Gale Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

491 
FZAK67 PAJK 041245
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-050100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND MOVE TO THE FAR SE
GULF WED MORNING...THEN N AND INLAND NEAR SITKA BY EARLY WED
EVENING. 

$$

PKZ310-050100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 4 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO
22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT...BECOMING N 30 KT EXTREME SE PORTIONS. SEAS
22 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT W GALE TO 35 KT EXTREME SE
PORTIONS. SEAS 20 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1208 PM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE REVEALS A GALE FORCE
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH A STRONG LLJ AS THE RADAR
SHOWS 45 KNOT SOUTH-EASTERLIES AS CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AS
800 FEET. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE NOT YET MADE IT TO THE SURFACE
WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER COAST...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH NEAR WIND ADVY LEVEL GUSTS FROM AKZ027 NORTHWARD TO
CROSS SOUND. RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL ALSO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE GULF
INCREASING THE VERTICAL MOTION IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW. USED THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS IT WAS DOING THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ORIENTATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND DIDN'T
OVERPHASE A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR HAND
OFF WITH LONG TERM LIKE THE 12Z GFS AND NAM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MAY BE A BIT
TRICKY DUE TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION.

 FOR TONIGHT WILL SEE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER
COAST MOVE ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH SMCR LEVEL WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS AND GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT. EXPECT ADVY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN CHANNELLED TERRAIN NEAR HYDABURG.
COULD ALSO SEE STRONGER WINDS NEAR KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE AND WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF THE 850 MB LLJ ON THE 18Z MODEL
RUNS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR YAKUTAT AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE BEST MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN THERE WITH THE PVA AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WILL SEE SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT ABOVE 1500 FEET...BUT WITH LIMITED QPF EXPECT
SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY.

 FOR TUESDAY WILL SEE A WEAKER MID LEVEL FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING CONTINUED RAINFALL WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AGAIN NEAR YAKUTAT AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THEY
HAVE THE BEST ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL RIDGING DOES INCREASE ACROSS PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND BY
THE AFTERNOON AND SO MAY HAVE A DECREASE IN THE PRECIP BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW WITH THE 850 MB LLJ NEAR
35 KNOTS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION DOES BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS IN THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED CHANNELS AS OPPOSED
TO THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED CHANNEL...SAVE CROSS SOUND AS EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WITH NEAR SMCR LEVEL WINDS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROADWAYS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT ELSEWHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR 2000 FEET AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE
REMAINS CONSTANT BETWEEN -1 TO -4 C.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...PATTERN CHANGE IN THE WORKS FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER WESTERN ALASKA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE THAT IS SITTING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA CURRENTLY WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE SYSTEM COMING INTO
THE GULF MID WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT STICK AROUND AS A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD INTO WESTERN ALASKA BY THE
WEEKEND.

 AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF
BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ALREADY SPREAD OVER
THE PANHANDLE BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IT IS ABOUT
HERE THAT THE MODELS START TO TAKE DIFFERENT PATHS. ALL THE
INTERNATIONAL MODELS (EC, UK, AND GEM) FORM A TRIPLE POINT LOW
ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SE OF THE MAIN LOW AND SEND IT NE INTO THE
PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST EITHER DON'T HAVE THAT
FEATURE AT ALL OR HAVE A WEAKER VERSION WELL SOUTH DOWN BY
VANCOUVER ISLAND. LIKED WHAT THE EC WAS PORTRAYING WITH THE
TRIPLE POINT COMING UP INTO THE PANHANDLE AS IT LOOKED REASONABLE
GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES AND THAT IT HAD SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE
OTHER MODELS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO, PTYPE AND WIND BECOME SOMEWHAT
OF A HEADACHE. WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS WILL START OUT AS
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT AS THE TRIPLE POINT APPROACHES THE WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH WED. ONCE THE FEATURE
PASSES WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REVERSES. THE BRIEF NORTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE MAY
PULL DOWN JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

 LATER ON, THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN ALASKA ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF A COLD HIGH IN THE CANADIAN INTERIOR WILL HELP TO START
TO DRY OUT AND COOL THE PANHANDLE DOWN. HOW MUCH OF A COOL DOWN
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE ENDS UP AND HOW CUT OFF IT
BECOMES. GFS IS GOING FOR A SOLUTION THAT IS FARTHER WEST AND
MORE CUT OFF THEN MOST OF THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS. THE EC AND
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A MORE EASTERLY AND STATIONARY
POSITION. THE EC ALSO HAS DISPLAYED MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS HAS. FOR EXTENDED UPDATES USED A
COMBO OF THE HPC GUIDANCE AND THE EC, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-032>035.

&&

PSS/EAL