High Wind Watch 4, NWS Juneau, AK

359 
WWAK77 PAJK 211952
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1152 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011


AKZ023-220000-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.A.0004.110923T0600Z-110923T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0005.110921T1952Z-110922T0000Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
1152 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* TIMING...HIGH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN WILL DIMINISH
  IN THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY
  NIGHT.

* WINDS...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-028-220015-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0004.110923T0600Z-110923T1500Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
1152 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY

* WINDS...GUSTS OF 60 MPH ARE PROBABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

155 
WWAK77 PAJK 212138
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
138 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

AKZ020>022-025-220400-
/X.EXB.PAJK.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110922T0400Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...
PELICAN...JUNEAU
138 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

* TIMING...HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
  AFTERNOON THEN WILL DIMINISH IN THE LATE EVENING. 

* WINDS...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ023-220400-
/X.EXT.PAJK.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110922T0400Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
138 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...HIGH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN WILL
  DIMINISH IN THE LATE EVENING. 

* WINDS...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-028-220400-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0004.110923T0600Z-110923T1500Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
138 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY

* WINDS...GUSTS OF 60 MPH ARE PROBABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

270 
WWAK77 PAJK 220214
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
614 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

AKZ020-021-023-025-220315-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110922T0400Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER...JUNEAU
614 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

THE HIGH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE EVENING. MEASURED WIND GUSTS REACHED 71
MPH AT JUNEAU AIRPORT...63 MPH AT SITKA AIRPORT...72 MPH AT PORT
ALEXANDER...AND 52 MPH AT GUSTAVUS AIRPORT. SEVERAL REPORTS OF
TREES DOWN AROUND JUNEAU WERE ALSO REPORTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

$$

AKZ022-220400-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110922T0400Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
614 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND DIMINISH IN THE
  LATE EVENING.

* WINDS...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-028-220400-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0004.110923T0600Z-110923T1500Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
614 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY

* WINDS...GUSTS OF 60 MPH ARE PROBABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 PM AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

906 
WWAK77 PAJK 220344
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
744 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

AKZ022-220445-
/X.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110922T0400Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
744 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE HIGHER WINDS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING ARE STARING TO
DIMINISH. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST BEFORE THEY DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT.

$$

AKZ027-028-221300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0004.110923T0600Z-110923T1500Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
744 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY

* WINDS...GUSTS OF 60 MPH ARE PROBABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

095 
WWAK77 PAJK 221217
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
417 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011

AKZ027-230000-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0004.110923T0600Z-110923T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0006.110923T0300Z-110923T1500Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
417 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
AKDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM AKDT
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
  INCREASING TO 60 MPH LATE.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-230000-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0004.110923T0600Z-110923T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0006.110923T0900Z-110923T1800Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
417 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
  GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH INCREASING TO 60 MPH LATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
409 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...970 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE ITS
NORTHWARD TRACK WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER KODIAK TONIGHT. WINDS
OVER THE AK GULF AND PANHANDLE ARE DIMINISHING AS THE STRONG
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRONG WINDS THE AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL FLOW BROUGHT
HEAVY RAINS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES REPORTED WITH RAINFALL RATES SUBSIDING. HAVE SEEN
RIVER LEVELS INCREASE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN, BUT LEVELS ARE STILL
BELOW ACTION STAGE.

 TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE AK GULF NEAR 46N 145W
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 160 KT JET A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH
CLOSED 984 MB CENTER CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECTING
THIS LOW TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AK GULF DEEPENING TO NEAR
966 MB BY WED AFTERNOON. AGAIN SEEING AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND EXPECTING HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE IN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND LOCAL URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME
EXPECTING RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE. HOWEVER
LOCAL FLOODING OR MUDSLIDES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER NORTHERN
REGIONS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FLIPS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE
DIURNAL VARIATION REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER NIGHT
AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO PRESSURE PATTERN
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. GFS AGAIN SHOWING STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
AND DEEPER LOW CENTER COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC, BUT ALL THESE
MODELS WERE SHOWING SIMILAR 850 MB WINDS THAT NEARED 70 KTS.
DECIDED TO KEEP WITH THE STORM FORCE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND USED
GFS TO UPDATE INHERITED GRIDS. ALSO PREFERRED THE GFS
INITIALIZATION TO THE NAM WHEN COMPARING RH AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME, THE MORNING GFS
INTRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW INSIDE 7978 MB JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST OUTER COAST. DISCOUNTED
THIS SOLUTION AND RELIED ON AN HPC/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. BEFORE THEN, BEGAN THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH AN EQUALLY WEIGHTED GFS/ECMWF BLEND THAT
PROGRESSIVELY INCLUDED MORE ECMWF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BELOW AVERAGE THEREAFTER.

LONG RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH THE TAIL END OF A WIND AND RAIN
EVENT AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A BREAK FROM THE
WINDS ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN OUTER COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
GENERATE HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OVER
ZONE 27 WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO COME ASHORE SOUTH OF SITKA FRIDAY MORNING AND
WEAKEN AS IT HEADS FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA. MORE SURFACE RIDGING OVER
THE PANHANDLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY
MORNING...WHEN THE NEXT STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY FURTHER TO THE
WEST, SO NO STRONG OR HIGH WINDS ARE IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF
THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS, STRONGER WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY.

THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTER REMAINS VERY MOIST, SO NOT MUCH BREAK
FROM THE RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE TIME FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032-051>053.

&&

PRB/FRITSCH