Storm Warning 46, NWS Juneau, AK

242 
FZAK52 PAJK 212052 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1252 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-221500-
1252 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 974 MB LOW S OF YAKUTAT BAY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING
AS IT TRACKS NORTH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS SE AK THROUGH THU MORNING. OUTLOOK. A STORM FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST GULF AND ONSHORE THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THU NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-221500-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1252 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND DECREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-221500-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1252 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND DECREASING TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-221500-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1252 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND DECREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. 
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-221500-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1252 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-221500-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1252 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING
TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

357 
FZAK52 PAJK 212305
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-221400-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 974 MB LOW S OF YAKUTAT BAY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING
AS IT TRACKS NORTH. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS SE AK THROUGH THU MORNING. OUTLOOK. A STORM FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST GULF AND ONSHORE THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THU NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-221400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-221400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT
SUBSIDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-221400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-221400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-221400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
409 PM AKDT TUE SEP 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...970 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE ITS
NORTHWARD TRACK WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER KODIAK TONIGHT. WINDS
OVER THE AK GULF AND PANHANDLE ARE DIMINISHING AS THE STRONG
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRONG WINDS THE AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL FLOW BROUGHT
HEAVY RAINS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES REPORTED WITH RAINFALL RATES SUBSIDING. HAVE SEEN
RIVER LEVELS INCREASE FROM THE HEAVY RAIN, BUT LEVELS ARE STILL
BELOW ACTION STAGE.

 TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE AK GULF NEAR 46N 145W
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 160 KT JET A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH
CLOSED 984 MB CENTER CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECTING
THIS LOW TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AK GULF DEEPENING TO NEAR
966 MB BY WED AFTERNOON. AGAIN SEEING AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION AND EXPECTING HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE IN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND LOCAL URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME
EXPECTING RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE. HOWEVER
LOCAL FLOODING OR MUDSLIDES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER NORTHERN
REGIONS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FLIPS. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE
DIURNAL VARIATION REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER NIGHT
AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO PRESSURE PATTERN
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. GFS AGAIN SHOWING STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
AND DEEPER LOW CENTER COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EC, BUT ALL THESE
MODELS WERE SHOWING SIMILAR 850 MB WINDS THAT NEARED 70 KTS.
DECIDED TO KEEP WITH THE STORM FORCE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND USED
GFS TO UPDATE INHERITED GRIDS. ALSO PREFERRED THE GFS
INITIALIZATION TO THE NAM WHEN COMPARING RH AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&

.LONG TERM...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME, THE MORNING GFS
INTRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW INSIDE 7978 MB JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST OUTER COAST. DISCOUNTED
THIS SOLUTION AND RELIED ON AN HPC/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. BEFORE THEN, BEGAN THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST WITH AN EQUALLY WEIGHTED GFS/ECMWF BLEND THAT
PROGRESSIVELY INCLUDED MORE ECMWF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BELOW AVERAGE THEREAFTER.

LONG RANGE FORECAST BEGINS WITH THE TAIL END OF A WIND AND RAIN
EVENT AS THE RESPONSIBLE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING AND A BREAK FROM THE
WINDS ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN OUTER COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
GENERATE HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OVER
ZONE 27 WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO COME ASHORE SOUTH OF SITKA FRIDAY MORNING AND
WEAKEN AS IT HEADS FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA. MORE SURFACE RIDGING OVER
THE PANHANDLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY
MORNING...WHEN THE NEXT STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY FURTHER TO THE
WEST, SO NO STRONG OR HIGH WINDS ARE IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF
THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS, STRONGER WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY.

THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTER REMAINS VERY MOIST, SO NOT MUCH BREAK
FROM THE RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKE THE TIME FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032-051>053.

&&

PRB/FRITSCH