High Wind Warning 12, NWS Juneau, AK

157 
WWAK77 PAJK 130258
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011


AKZ023-027-130400-
/X.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-111113T0300Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
558 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

THE STRONGEST OF THE WESTERLY WINDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

STRONG WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

SOME PEAK WIND GUSTS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDED:

SITKA                      63 MPH
PORT ALEXANDER TIDE GAUGE  66 MPH 
CAPE SPENCER               83 MPH 
CAPE DECISION             100 MPH

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WEATHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA SATURDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE AREAS THE SNOW HAS MIXED WITH RAIN
...EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND THE YAKUTAT AREA SO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ENDED EARLIER TONIGHT. HEAVIER
THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL IN THE YAKUTAT AND HAINES AREA PROMPTED AN
UPGRADE TO WARNING LEVEL FOR SNOW.

THE STRONG LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND SOUTHEAST
OF YAKUTAT BUT THERE IS STRONG WEST WIND AT THE LOWER LEVEL BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT WEST
GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE MARINES...ONE OF THE STRONGER
MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WAS CALLING FOR NEARLY 70 KT. THERE
WAS ONE SHIP OBSERVATION THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REPORTING 62 KT. WITH THE STRONG WINDS SPREADING IN THE COASTAL
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL GUSTINESS
IN WITH WINDS HAVE GONE WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM CROSS SOUND TO
DIXON ENTRANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER. EXPANDED INTO A
STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF INTERIOR PUBLIC
ZONES.

HIGH TIDES NOT AT THE HIGHER ENDS OF THE STANDARD TIDAL SWINGS SO
THE NEARLY 2 FOOT SURGE MOVING ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE COASTAL AREA
SO COASTAL FLOOD NOT AN ISSUE FOR SATURDAY HOWEVER WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SUNDAY WILL SEE THE STORM
FORCE WESTERLY WINDS OFFSHORE CONTINUING WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OF UP
TO 60MPH ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE HIGH AT THIS TIME AS WELL RANGING
FROM 25 TO 33FT WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE STRONG WEST ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS AS WELL...NAMELY ALONG THE WEST
FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES WHERE LIFT WILL BE THE GREATEST. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE RAIN VS SNOW. 850MB TEMPS DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY...SO RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW EARLY THEN CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE ONSHORE FLOW...HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO BRING WITH
IT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT...KEEPING THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IN RAIN AND MIXING PRECIP NORTH. AS THIS LOW MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
BECOME ALL SNOW...HOWEVER FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
NORTH...DIMINISHING PRECIP PROBABILITY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO
THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE...REACHING STORM
FORCE THROUGH LYNN CANAL BY WEDNESDAY...AND BRINGING WITH IT THE
MUCH COLDER AIR. THE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW NORMAL AND THE CAA OUT OF
CANADA WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS COOL AS WELL.

OVERALL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE MINOR. MAIN UPDATES WERE
TO INCREASE WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
CHALLENGE OF TIMING THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW REMAIN AND THUS
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR THAT IS BELOW NORMAL. CONFIDENCE FOR COLD
AND DRY TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ017>021-024>026-028.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR AKZ022-023-027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ017-019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-042-043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-041-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-034-035-053.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON