Gale Warning 92, NWS Juneau, AK

113 
FZAK67 PAJK 201245
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-210100-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE
ACROSS SE AK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE YUKON OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  

$$

PKZ310-210100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL BECOMING SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND BECOMING 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL IN THE
EVENING. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
215 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011

ONSET OF A NEW ARCTIC OUTBREAK IN A NE TO S SEQUENCE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUN. HEAVY SNOW IS STILL TO OCCUR THIS EVENING FOR
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. THE ASSOCIATED WINTER STORM WARNINGS
ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. NOTE THE LISTING
AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRODUCT.

GOES VIS AND IR DISPLAY THE OCFNT THAT IS XTDG SSE FM THE VCNTY
OF PAYA AT THIS TIME.  THE PARENT FEATURE FOR THIS OCFNT IS A
COMPLEX OF LOWS WI 100 NM OF PAYA HAVE CENTERS OF ABOUT 998 MB.
THE FROPA PAST A PAJN-PASI LN SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT 06Z THIS
EVENING ALBEIT SFC FNTS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE
INNER CHANNELS.

TWO DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE BEGINNING
TO OCCUR, THE FIRST IS THE COLD ADVECTION FM THE W BHND THE
OCFNT. THE SECOND IS AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK FM NW CAN. SHUTOFF
IN THE SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK IN A N TO S SEQUENCE FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUN.

MODELS: THE 06Z NAM AND THE 12Z GFS HAVE HAD THE BEST FIT
WITH SEVERAL FIELDS INCLUDING THE THICKNESS GRADIENT RETRIEVED
FROM THE BIORKA RADAR WIND SHEAR. 12Z NAM WAS TOO WEAK ON
THICKNESS GRADIENTS AND THAT MODEL RUN OF SFC WINDS IS TOO WEAK.
&&

.LONG TERM...
19/12Z OPERATIONS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AND
SELECTED HPC MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRAPHICS TO DRIVE THE WIND IN
THE LATER PERIODS. WITH AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE THE
WEST
A SURFACE HIGH CELL BETWEEN 1050 AND 1060 MB WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON BY WED THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD. EXPECT MODELS TO KICK
THIS OUT TOO RAPIDLY AS USUAL. SCREAMING MESSAGE IN GRIDS AND TEXT
WILL BE CLEAR WINDY AND COLD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN
LONGER. CONFIDENCE HIGH SUN NITE THRU WED. THU THRU SAT MUCH LESS
CERTAIN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST SUN AKZ020-025-026.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM AKST SUN AKZ018-019-021-022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST SUN AKZ023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST SUN AKZ028.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM AKST SUNDAY AKZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>036-051-052.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
120 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/19/2011  M6.0 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WFO PAYA STORM TOTAL SNOW 3PM FRI-10AM SAT 6.0 INCHES.

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       8 NE SKAGWAY            59.56N 135.17W
02/19/2011  M8.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SKAGWAY CUSTOMS SNOW TOTAL 3PM FRI-9AM SAT 8.5 INCHES
            SNOW.

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       15 NE SKAGWAY           59.63N 135.03W
02/19/2011  E11.0 INCH       XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AT WHITE PASS 3116 FEET STORM TOTAL SNOW
            3 PM FRI-9AM SAT E 11 INCHES. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
            MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND S15.

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
02/19/2011  E8.3 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PELICAN COOP OBSERVER REPORTED 8.3 INCHES SNOW 3PM FRI-AM
            SAT. PRECIP HAS MIXED WITH RAIN.

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       6 N JUNEAU              58.38N 134.41W
02/19/2011  M6.7 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WFO JUNEAU REPORTED 6.7 INCHES SNOW BETWEEN 9PM FRI-9AM
            SAT. MDT SNOW FALLING.

&&

MJM