Gale Warning 140, NWS Juneau, AK

635 
FZAK52 PAJK 200121 AAA
CWFAEG
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
421 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-201400-
421 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL CAUSE 
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SE AK UNTIL EARLY SUN. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE YUKON TUE AND WED. 
$$

PKZ041-201400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
421 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE EVENING
BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ042-201400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
421 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ043-201400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
421 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ051-201400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
421 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT BY WED. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ052-201400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
421 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 9
FT.
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

290 
FZAK52 PAJK 201246
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE
ACROSS SE AK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE YUKON OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND BECOMING 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
13 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 9
FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 20 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT LATE. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 9
FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
215 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011

ONSET OF A NEW ARCTIC OUTBREAK IN A NE TO S SEQUENCE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SUN. HEAVY SNOW IS STILL TO OCCUR THIS EVENING FOR
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. THE ASSOCIATED WINTER STORM WARNINGS
ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. NOTE THE LISTING
AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRODUCT.

GOES VIS AND IR DISPLAY THE OCFNT THAT IS XTDG SSE FM THE VCNTY
OF PAYA AT THIS TIME.  THE PARENT FEATURE FOR THIS OCFNT IS A
COMPLEX OF LOWS WI 100 NM OF PAYA HAVE CENTERS OF ABOUT 998 MB.
THE FROPA PAST A PAJN-PASI LN SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT 06Z THIS
EVENING ALBEIT SFC FNTS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE
INNER CHANNELS.

TWO DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE BEGINNING
TO OCCUR, THE FIRST IS THE COLD ADVECTION FM THE W BHND THE
OCFNT. THE SECOND IS AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK FM NW CAN. SHUTOFF
IN THE SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH THE ONSET OF THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK IN A N TO S SEQUENCE FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUN.

MODELS: THE 06Z NAM AND THE 12Z GFS HAVE HAD THE BEST FIT
WITH SEVERAL FIELDS INCLUDING THE THICKNESS GRADIENT RETRIEVED
FROM THE BIORKA RADAR WIND SHEAR. 12Z NAM WAS TOO WEAK ON
THICKNESS GRADIENTS AND THAT MODEL RUN OF SFC WINDS IS TOO WEAK.
&&

.LONG TERM...
19/12Z OPERATIONS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AND
SELECTED HPC MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRAPHICS TO DRIVE THE WIND IN
THE LATER PERIODS. WITH AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE THE
WEST
A SURFACE HIGH CELL BETWEEN 1050 AND 1060 MB WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUKON BY WED THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD. EXPECT MODELS TO KICK
THIS OUT TOO RAPIDLY AS USUAL. SCREAMING MESSAGE IN GRIDS AND TEXT
WILL BE CLEAR WINDY AND COLD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN
LONGER. CONFIDENCE HIGH SUN NITE THRU WED. THU THRU SAT MUCH LESS
CERTAIN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST SUN AKZ020-025-026.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM AKST SUN AKZ018-019-021-022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST SUN AKZ023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST SUN AKZ028.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM AKST SUNDAY AKZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>036-051-052.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
120 PM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
02/19/2011  M6.0 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WFO PAYA STORM TOTAL SNOW 3PM FRI-10AM SAT 6.0 INCHES.

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       8 NE SKAGWAY            59.56N 135.17W
02/19/2011  M8.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SKAGWAY CUSTOMS SNOW TOTAL 3PM FRI-9AM SAT 8.5 INCHES
            SNOW.

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       15 NE SKAGWAY           59.63N 135.03W
02/19/2011  E11.0 INCH       XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            KLONDIKE HIGHWAY AT WHITE PASS 3116 FEET STORM TOTAL SNOW
            3 PM FRI-9AM SAT E 11 INCHES. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
            MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND S15.

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
02/19/2011  E8.3 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PELICAN COOP OBSERVER REPORTED 8.3 INCHES SNOW 3PM FRI-AM
            SAT. PRECIP HAS MIXED WITH RAIN.

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       6 N JUNEAU              58.38N 134.41W
02/19/2011  M6.7 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WFO JUNEAU REPORTED 6.7 INCHES SNOW BETWEEN 9PM FRI-9AM
            SAT. MDT SNOW FALLING.

&&

MJM