Gale Warning 9, NWS Juneau, AK

713 
FZAK67 PAJK 220028
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-221400-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF
WHILE DEEPENING TO 980 MB BY EARLY SAT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY SAT.  

$$

PKZ310-221400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011 

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

769 
FZAK67 PAJK 221218
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
317 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-230630-
317 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE JUST WEST OF YAKUTAT TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. A
WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ310-230630-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
317 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

970 
FZAK67 PAJK 221218
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-230100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE JUST WEST OF YAKUTAT TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. A
WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ310-230100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

659 
FZAK67 PAJK 222052 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1152 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-230115-
1152 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT AND SE AK SUN MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF
SUN AFTERNOON AND ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. 

$$

PKZ310-230115-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1152 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

UPDATED TODAY

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.THIS AFTERNOON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

251 
FZAK67 PAJK 230028
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-231400-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT AND SE AK SUN MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF
SUN AFTERNOON AND ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. 

$$

PKZ310-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011 

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
SW SWELL LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

306 
FZAK67 PAJK 230426 AAA
OFFAJK
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
730 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-231400-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT AND SE AK SUN MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF
SUN AFTERNOON AND ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. 
$$

PKZ310-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
SW SWELL LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
$$

599 
FZAK67 PAJK 231231
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-240100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SEND A STRONG WEATHER
FRONT TO THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND ONSHORE THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. A SECOND WEATHER FRONT WILL FOLLOW MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ310-240100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
249 PM AKST THU JAN 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAKENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DRIFTING EAST WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AND SNOW/RAIN MIX
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THE WEAKENING TROUGH...WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH ROUGH SEAS. WITH
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH...AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG FORMING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
THEN ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
GRIDS WITH THE GFS DUE TO ITS BEST CONSISTENCY. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN BUT NOT REACHING AS FAR
NORTH TO THE SKAGWAY...HAINES AND YAKUTAT AREAS. WILL LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES AND KEEP SNOW FORECAST
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT YAKUTAT AREA WILL WARM UP A
BIT THIS EVENING BUT COOLING DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT SKAGWAY AND HAINES
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST
DOMAIN BEFORE THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES THE OUTSIDE COASTAL
WATERS. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND SPREADING ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WARM AIR MASS WILL BRING
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BUT UP TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SMALL
CRAFT WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...IN GENERAL EXPECT A MILD AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THIS
LONG TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS GAIN MAXIMUM STRENGTH OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF KODIAK THEN WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND DIE AROUND YAKUTAT AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES.

THE 984 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT
SATURDAY HAS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATES NEAR HAWAII
AND WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY.
SW GALES SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SW SWELL AND HAVE SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS IS
FAVORABLE FOR SE WINDS WITH MOST ZONES A SOLID SMCR ALTHO CANNOT
RULE OUT A PRE FRONTAL SE GALE IN CLARENCE AND A POST FRONTAL SW
GALES FOR CROSS SOUND. COULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE
IN HAINES FOR SOME SNOW BUT THINK RAIN WILL BE MAIN PRECIP TYPE.

A SIMILAR SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EITHER SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES FOR THE EASTERN GULF AND SMCR WITH HEAVY
RAIN FOR INNER CHANNELS.

WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES I
DID NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES AND OPTED TO KEEP
EXISTING GRIDS AND ONLY MAKE A FEW SMALL CHANGES. NO MODEL HAD A
PREFERENCE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

AHN/MM