Gale Warning 64, NWS Juneau, AK

219 
FZAK52 PAJK 211739 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
838 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
838 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 989 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WEST OF CAPE OMMANEY WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A
SECOND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OUTER COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
838 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
838 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
838 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
838 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
838 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
249 PM AKST THU JAN 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAKENING
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DRIFTING EAST WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AND SNOW/RAIN MIX
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THE WEAKENING TROUGH...WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH ROUGH SEAS. WITH
DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH...AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG FORMING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT
THEN ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
GRIDS WITH THE GFS DUE TO ITS BEST CONSISTENCY. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN BUT NOT REACHING AS FAR
NORTH TO THE SKAGWAY...HAINES AND YAKUTAT AREAS. WILL LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES AND KEEP SNOW FORECAST
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT YAKUTAT AREA WILL WARM UP A
BIT THIS EVENING BUT COOLING DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT SKAGWAY AND HAINES
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST
DOMAIN BEFORE THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES THE OUTSIDE COASTAL
WATERS. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND SPREADING ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...WARM AIR MASS WILL BRING
ALL RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BUT UP TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SMALL
CRAFT WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...IN GENERAL EXPECT A MILD AND WET PATTERN THROUGH THIS
LONG TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS GAIN MAXIMUM STRENGTH OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF KODIAK THEN WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND DIE AROUND YAKUTAT AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES.

THE 984 MB LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT
SATURDAY HAS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATES NEAR HAWAII
AND WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY.
SW GALES SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SW SWELL AND HAVE SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS IS
FAVORABLE FOR SE WINDS WITH MOST ZONES A SOLID SMCR ALTHO CANNOT
RULE OUT A PRE FRONTAL SE GALE IN CLARENCE AND A POST FRONTAL SW
GALES FOR CROSS SOUND. COULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE
IN HAINES FOR SOME SNOW BUT THINK RAIN WILL BE MAIN PRECIP TYPE.

A SIMILAR SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EITHER SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES FOR THE EASTERN GULF AND SMCR WITH HEAVY
RAIN FOR INNER CHANNELS.

WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES I
DID NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES AND OPTED TO KEEP
EXISTING GRIDS AND ONLY MAKE A FEW SMALL CHANGES. NO MODEL HAD A
PREFERENCE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

AHN/MM