Gale Warning 55, NWS Juneau, AK

440 
FZAK52 PAJK 171249
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON AFTERNOON AND
DRIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO BE OVER NORTHERN BC BY TUE.  

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW. SEAS 16 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW IN THE
EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S
SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.

.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL INCREASING TO S IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL.
SNOW LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
336 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE BIG NEWS IS THAT THE STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 989 MB LOW IN DIXON ENTRANCES
MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL B.C. WHILE THE HIGH OVER THE YUKON
WEAKENS. STILL HAVE GALE AND HVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR NRN LYNN
CANAL BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMCR BY MORNING.

 FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIXON ENTRANCE LOW CONTINUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONE AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN PICKED UP
BY A AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND IS PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NOW.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL ALONG SOUTHERN COAST MT'S WHERE IT WILL
FALL AS SNOW AND STILL HAVE WSW IN EFFECT FOR 26 AND 29 TIL
MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES TEMPS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING WITH RAIN. SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND 4 TO 8 INCHES IN 26 AND 29 BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE ENDED FZ RA ADVISORY WITH COLD ARE SOUTH OF ARCTIC
FRONT NOW MIXED OUT.

 THERE IS A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THAT DISSIPATES
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL SEE A BIT OF CCA
LATER TONIGHT BUT SHORT LIVED. BEHIND THIS THROUGH NW WINDS
INCREASE AND REACH GALE FORCE IN COASTAL WATERS. A SECOND TROUGH
PUSHES TO NE GULF MON AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD SNOW TO
THE COAST BY MORNING AND INTO INNER CHANNELS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THE PERIOD OF WINDY ARCTIC COLD OVER THE NORTHERN
2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE IS ENDING. WARMER AIR ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND INLAND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING EPISODES
OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND BY ABOUT THUR PRECIP SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AT SEA LEVEL EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS SKAGWAY.

 CONSENSUS OPINION IS THE LAST TWO GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE
SIMILAR AND ACCEPTED FOR HANDLING THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THIS
WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRETTY CONSISTENT TOO. MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SHOWS WARMING ALL AREAS BUT ENSEMBLE TEMPS WED COVER
BROAD RANGE. THIS IS THE PERIOD OF MOST UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE /RAIN VS SNOW/ ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PANHANDLE BECAUSE THE IMPACTS OF CHANGING TO
FROZEN TO LIQUID PRECIP MAY BE SIGNIFICANT.

 VERY DEEP STORM SFC/ALF WEST OF THE DATELINE AT 45N TODAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS STORM SEVERAL SMALL
FEATURES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MAINTAIN A COOL
NW FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW LINE NEAR FREDERICK SOUND
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED THE DEEPER STORM APPRCHG FROM THE
DATELINE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN STEERING A WARMER SW
JETSTREAM AND SFC WARM FRONT INTO THE ERN GULF. BASED ON GFS
MODEL PREDICTED UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BEGIN
LIFTING N ACROSS ENTIRE PANHANDLE LATER TUES BUT THE WARM LAYER
MAY BE SHALLOW. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM WHETHER THE WARM FRONT
STALLS FOR A WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG AND NORTH OF
A JNU-CAPE SPENCER LINE...OR WORSE...LOCALIZED FRZG RAIN. STILL
BELIEVE THE ONSHORE FLOW ALFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THUR-FRI TO
WARM SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING CLEAR INTO NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
SNOW LEVELS PREDICTED TO RISE BY FRI TO ABOVE 4000 FT FAR SRN
PANHANDLE TO AROUND 1500 FT JNU AND 1000 FEET FAR NORTHERN ZONES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
	AKZ026-029.
	FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON
	FOR AKZ027- 028.
	WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
 	AKZ017-019-020-022-025.
 	WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-031.
 	HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
 	GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-041.
 	SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-042-043-051-052.

&&

MM/TA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
207 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     BLIZZARD         WHITE PASS              59.62N 135.14W
01/16/2011                                      AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE SUMMIT/BORDER RECORDING REPORTED HEAVY BLOWING SNOW
            REDUCING VISIBILITIES LESS THEN A QUARTER OF A MILE.
            TEMPERATURE WAS 18 BELOW ZERO FARENHEIT AT THE SUMMIT
            WITH NORTH WIND 25 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH. THIS GIVES A
            WIND CHILL BELOW 55 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FARENHEIT.

0830 AM     SNOW             COFFMAN COVE            56.01N 132.83W
01/16/2011  M7.8 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COFFMAN COVE CO-OP REPORTED A 24 HOUR TOTAL OF 7.8 INCHES
            WITH 10 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. SNOW WAS STILL
            FALLING AT THE TIME OF THE CALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.91N 130.02W
01/16/2011  M9.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THE HYDER CO-OP REPORTED A 24 HOUR SNOW TOTAL OF 9.0
            INCHES WITH 25 INCHES ON THE GROUND. IT WAS STILL
            STEADILY SNOWING AT THE TIME OF THE CALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             40 NNW KETCHIKAN        55.87N 132.04W
01/16/2011  M7.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            THE MYERS CHUCK CO-OP HAD A 24 HOUR SNOW TOTAL OF 7.0
            INCHES. IT WAS STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY AT THE TIME OF THE
            CALL.

1200 PM     SNOW             9 N PETERSBURG          56.94N 132.96W
01/16/2011  M3.5 INCH        PKZ034             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PETERSBURG OBSERVER AT 9 MILE HAD 3.5 INCHES OF SNOW THAT
            FELL FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TILL NOON. 15 INCHES WAS
            CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND AND IT WAS STILL STEADILY
            SNOWING.

1100 AM     ICE STORM        KLAWOCK                 55.55N 133.09W
01/16/2011                                      AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED THERE WAS A STORM TOTAL OF 1 INCH OF ICE
            ACCUMULATION FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. CURRENTLY WAS ALL
            MELTING AND ALL RAIN.

1100 AM     ICE STORM        EDNA BAY                55.95N 133.66W
01/16/2011                                      AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 6 FROM ZONE 27 SAID THERE WAS NO ICE ACCUMULATION
            BUT ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. WAS CURRENTLY
            LIGHTLY SNOWING.

1100 AM     SNOW             EDNA BAY                55.95N 133.66W
01/16/2011  M3.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 8 FROM ZONE 27 REPORTED 3.5 INCHES OF SNOW
            OVERNIGHT, 3 INCHES YESTERDAY AND ANOTHER 1 INCH THAT
            FELL THIS MORNING. THERE WAS NO ICE REPORTED. CURRENTLY
            VERY LIGHTLY SNOWING.

1100 AM     SNOW             PETERSBURG              56.81N 132.96W
01/16/2011  M4.0 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE PETERSBURG WEATHER OBSERVER REPORTED 7 INCHES OF SNOW
            ON THE GROUND AS OF 0330Z ON THE 16TH WITH 11 INCHES OF
            SNOW ON THE GROUND AT 2000Z ON THE 16TH. THIS GIVES A
            TOTAL OF 4 INCHES THAT FELL IN BETWEEN THAT PERIOD.

1100 AM     SNOW             9 N WRANGELL            56.60N 132.40W
01/16/2011  E7.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 1 FROM ZONE 26 ESTIMATED THAT 5 INCHES OF SNOW
            HAD FALLEN SINCE 830 PM ON THE 15TH AND THERE WAS 7
            INCHES CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND. THERE WERE HIGHER AMOUNTS
            NEAR THE ROAD OF ALMOST A FOOT.

1100 AM     SNOW             PETERSBURG              56.81N 132.96W
01/16/2011  E2.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 14 FROM ZONE 26 ESTIMATED 2 INCHES OF SNOW HAD
            FALLEN SO FAR IN THE MORNING. WAS STILL SNOWING AT TIME
            OF CALL.

1200 PM     SNOW             PORT ALEXANDER          56.25N 134.64W
01/16/2011  E3.0 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE PORT ALEXANDER OBSERVER REPORTED 3 INCHES OF SNOW
            FALLING OVERNIGHT. WAS CURRENTLY STILL SNOWING AND
            VISIBILITY WAS BELOW HALF A MILE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

1200 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNW AUKE BAY          58.42N 134.69W
01/16/2011  E0 MPH                              AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 7 FROM ZONE 25 CALLED REPORTING VISIBILITY OF
            LESS THEN 3 QUARTERS OF A MILE WHEN LOOKING ACROSS THE
            WATER.

1200 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
01/16/2011  E0 MPH                              AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SPOTTER 2 FROM ZONE 19 REPORTED VISIBILITY OF LESS THEN 1
            MILE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. SNOW HAS BEEN STEADILY
            INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

0353 AM     ICE STORM        KLAWOCK                 55.55N 133.09W
01/16/2011                                      AK   ASOS

            THE KLAWOCK ASOS REPORTED FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING ON THE
            16TH AROUND 1300Z AND ENDING AROUND 2100Z ON THE 16TH.

0600 AM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.91N 130.02W
01/16/2011  M3.0 INCH                           AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            THE STEWART, BC WEATHER OBSERVER REPORTED 3.0 INCHES OF
            SNOW HAVING FALLEN SINCE 15Z THIS MORNING TO 22Z THIS
            AFTERNOON.

&&

CJL