Gale Warning 52, NWS Juneau, AK

334 
FZAK52 PAJK 162205 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
104 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-170115-
104 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CANADA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF AK SUN MORNING DRIFT EAST AND
INTO CANADA SUN NIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF SUN NIGHT AND DRIFT EAST INTO MON. 

$$

PKZ041-170115-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
104 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

UPDATED TODAY
 
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND PERIODS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-170115-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
104 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-170115-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
104 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

UPDATED TODAY

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 13 FT LATE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SW
SWELL.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-170115-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
104 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE.
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-170115-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
104 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011

UPDATED TODAY

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. S
SWELL.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 



$$

566 
FZAK52 PAJK 170047
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171400-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW IN DIXON
ENTRANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. THIS
ALLOWS THE STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE MONDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-171400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO
16 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-171400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-171400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING
TO 13 FT LATE. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. S
SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-171400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-171400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 16 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. 
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

440 
FZAK52 PAJK 171249
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON AFTERNOON AND
DRIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO BE OVER NORTHERN BC BY TUE.  

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW. SEAS 16 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW IN THE
EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE EVENING...THEN RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S
SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL.

.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 17 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL INCREASING TO S IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL.
SNOW LATE. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

.SHORT TERM... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF CLOUDS AND
SNOW HAS ADVANCED AS FAR NORTH AS JUNEAU HOWEVER THE HIGHER
CLOUDS ARE MORE BANDED THAN SOLID AND AS A RESULT THE SNOWFALL IS
QUITE VARIABLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE BUT
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING IN THE EXTREME SOUTH AND
A SLOW WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF
THE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WARM UP A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
HEAVY SNOW IS CURRENTLY ONLY IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 29 AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS CONTINUED FOR ZONE 26. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED TO THE THE GENERAL WARM MOIST OVERRUNING CONDITION
THROUGH SUNDAY OTHER THAN A VERY GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
ARCTIC OUTFLOW AIRMASS BELOW.

 MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE YUKON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR ZONES WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD. A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WAS ISSUED FOR
ZONE 18 WHICH INCLUDES SKAGWAY AND THE KONDIKE HIGHWAY. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...WE WILL BE IN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
ONE LAST BURST OF ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
GULF AND GO TO ONSHORE FLOW. DO HAVE A SHORT WAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW
THAT MOVES ACROSS PANHANDLE MONDAY AND A WEAK SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES
FROM SW ON TUESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY
WITH GALES. PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS PANHANDLE AND COULD SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR INNER CHANNELS WED-THU. HAVE PRECIP GOING
TO ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR PAHN-PAGY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. USED NAM FOR PRES-WIND THROUGH
DAY 3.5 BUT IT IS WAY TOO COLD (HAD A -12C COLD BIAS AT PAKT THIS
MORNING) IN THE BOUNDARY LEVEL. PRIMARILY USED GFS FOR TEMPS AND
OTHER FIELDS THROUGH DAY 4 AND HPC GRIDS DAYS 4-8.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ026.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ017-019-020-022-025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018-029.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-043.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ011>013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-034-035-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-036-041-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

CFD/MM