Gale Warning 468, NWS Juneau, AK

019 
FZAK67 PAJK 220637 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
937 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-221600-
937 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES TO THE OUTER
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND CROSSES SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY.  

$$

PKZ310-221600-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
937 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

447 
FZAK67 PAJK 221248
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-230100-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER SE AK LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI.  

$$

PKZ310-230100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT EAST OF 140W. S WIND 25 KT WEST OF 140W. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
234 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...FIRST FRONT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING AND NOW IS STATIONARY E-W ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. WEAK RIDING IS STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
YUKON WHICH IS WEAKENING SLY GRADIENTS. A DEEP AND WELL WRAPPED
UP 975 MB STORM FORCE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 45/155 AND WILL TRACK
STEADILY NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WRAPS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW.
SATELLITE AND MODELS INDICATING THERE WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT THAT MOVES TO PWS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TODAY WITH ONLY PAYA IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT PICKING UP MIXED
RA/SN. THIS FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THIS
EVENING AND THEN WILL PUSH BACK TO NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY PRECIP WILL BE
ALL RAIN. SOME COLD AIR SPILLS INTO NORTHERN AREA TONIGHT AS
GRADIENTS GO WEAK NORTHERLY BETWEEN RIDGING OVER YUKON AND
APPROACHING FRONT TO SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO GO BACK TO
SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS JUNEAU TONIGHT BUT AS FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
NORTH...SNOW CHANGES BACK TO RAIN FOR HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
BY THURSDAY MORNING.

QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LARGE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
COULD SEE 3 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH TO 1.5
INCHES FOR INNER CHANNELS. THIS WILL FALL AS HEAVY SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND ISSUED SPS TO COVER THIS. HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
SHOULD PICK UP 6 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY
AND ISSUED A WSW FOR THERE.

SE WINDS ON RADAR ALREADY AT GALE FORCE IN COASTAL WATERS. AS
FRONT MOVES INTO COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT COASTAL BARRIER
EFFECTS INCREASE WINDS TO STORMS. EXPECT THESE WIND TO SPREAD
INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGEST WINDS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN ON
THURSDAY WHERE A STORM WILL BE ISSUED FOR CLARENCE ST. DO HAVE 65+
KT LOW LEVEL JET AND WILL UPGRADE WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
23, 27, AND 28. ELSWR WILL SPREAD A 45 KT STRONG WIND GUSTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH ALL MODELS
TENDING TO SHIFT LOW FARTHER WEST AND FARTHER NORTH AND THUS
ALLOWING WARMER AIR MASS TO MAKE SE ALASKA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH INTO CENTRAL ALASKA. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIMIT MAJORITY
OF THE REGION TO ALL RAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
LOWS FRONTAL TROUGH EXPECT STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SHIFT FROM
CLARENCE STRAIT TO LYNN CANAL BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEPICT A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP BETWEEN FRONTAL SYSTEMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING THE AREA
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK AS THURSDAYS AND ALSO HAVING A LARGE
WRAPPED OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL FALL AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
OVER THE NORTH WITH THIS FRONT AND ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A WARM SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS CREATES
A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ENHANCING THE
ALREADY PRESENT COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO MAINLY SNOW WITH
ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL ARCTIC LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND CONTINUE TO WRAP COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS NEW SURFACE
LOWS MOVE INTO THE AREA SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. AS A RESULT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. USED
A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS TO UPDATE THE GOING FORECAST WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM AND A TRANSITION TO HPC IN THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022-024-026.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023-027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017-021-025-029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
     THURSDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-022-033>035-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-032-053.

&&

MM/HANNON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1215 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

AKZ017-018-019-020-021-022-023-024-025-026-027-028-029-220800-
1215 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

...VERY WET AND WINDY IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE VERY WET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN IN SOUTHEAST COMMUNITIES AT
SEA LEVEL. ONE TO TWO FEET OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 1000 FEET FROM ABOUT JUNEAU NORTHWARD BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LOWER TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRED FEET TONIGHT BUT ARE FORECAST RISE TO AROUND 1500 FEET ON
THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE BETWEEN
2000 AND 3000 FEET THURSDAY AND RISING THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
THREE AND FIVE INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PONDING OF
WATER ALONG STREETS AND PARKING LOTS WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR DRIVERS AND PEDESTRIANS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
WATER COVERS HARD PACKED ICY SURFACES.

ALONG WITH THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER
THE PANHANDLE. PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE 25 TO 40 MPH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
PEOPLE MAY WANT TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND OUTDOOR DECORATIONS.
WAVES ON THE INNER CHANNELS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 10 FEET WHILE SEAS
OFFSHORE WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 FOOT RANGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO PAY ATTENTION TO WEATHER FORECASTS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

TA DEC 11