Storm Warning 91, NWS Juneau, AK

033 
FZAK52 PAJK 221856 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
956 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-230100-
956 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 975 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER SE AK LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI.  

$$

PKZ041-230100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
956 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-230100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
956 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT
SUBSIDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-230100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
956 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT
SUBSIDING TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-230100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
956 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-230100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
956 AM AKST THU DEC 22 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE LATE EVENING.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
234 PM AKST WED DEC 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...FIRST FRONT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING AND NOW IS STATIONARY E-W ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. WEAK RIDING IS STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
YUKON WHICH IS WEAKENING SLY GRADIENTS. A DEEP AND WELL WRAPPED
UP 975 MB STORM FORCE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 45/155 AND WILL TRACK
STEADILY NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WRAPS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW.
SATELLITE AND MODELS INDICATING THERE WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT THAT MOVES TO PWS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TODAY WITH ONLY PAYA IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT PICKING UP MIXED
RA/SN. THIS FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THIS
EVENING AND THEN WILL PUSH BACK TO NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY PRECIP WILL BE
ALL RAIN. SOME COLD AIR SPILLS INTO NORTHERN AREA TONIGHT AS
GRADIENTS GO WEAK NORTHERLY BETWEEN RIDGING OVER YUKON AND
APPROACHING FRONT TO SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO GO BACK TO
SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS JUNEAU TONIGHT BUT AS FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
NORTH...SNOW CHANGES BACK TO RAIN FOR HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
BY THURSDAY MORNING.

QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LARGE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
COULD SEE 3 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH TO 1.5
INCHES FOR INNER CHANNELS. THIS WILL FALL AS HEAVY SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND ISSUED SPS TO COVER THIS. HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS
SHOULD PICK UP 6 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY
AND ISSUED A WSW FOR THERE.

SE WINDS ON RADAR ALREADY AT GALE FORCE IN COASTAL WATERS. AS
FRONT MOVES INTO COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT COASTAL BARRIER
EFFECTS INCREASE WINDS TO STORMS. EXPECT THESE WIND TO SPREAD
INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGEST WINDS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN ON
THURSDAY WHERE A STORM WILL BE ISSUED FOR CLARENCE ST. DO HAVE 65+
KT LOW LEVEL JET AND WILL UPGRADE WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
23, 27, AND 28. ELSWR WILL SPREAD A 45 KT STRONG WIND GUSTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH ALL MODELS
TENDING TO SHIFT LOW FARTHER WEST AND FARTHER NORTH AND THUS
ALLOWING WARMER AIR MASS TO MAKE SE ALASKA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH INTO CENTRAL ALASKA. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIMIT MAJORITY
OF THE REGION TO ALL RAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
LOWS FRONTAL TROUGH EXPECT STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SHIFT FROM
CLARENCE STRAIT TO LYNN CANAL BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEPICT A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP BETWEEN FRONTAL SYSTEMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING THE AREA
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK AS THURSDAYS AND ALSO HAVING A LARGE
WRAPPED OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL FALL AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
OVER THE NORTH WITH THIS FRONT AND ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A WARM SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC. THIS CREATES
A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ENHANCING THE
ALREADY PRESENT COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO MAINLY SNOW WITH
ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL ARCTIC LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND CONTINUE TO WRAP COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS NEW SURFACE
LOWS MOVE INTO THE AREA SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. AS A RESULT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. USED
A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS TO UPDATE THE GOING FORECAST WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM AND A TRANSITION TO HPC IN THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022-024-026.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023-027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017-021-025-029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
     THURSDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-022-033>035-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-032-053.

&&

MM/HANNON