Gale Warning 466, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
302 PM AKST MON DEC 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...WET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY AS
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHTS FRONT AND THE NEW PRECIP FROM
AN APPROACHING LOW MOVE OVER THE AREA. FOR MOST PLACES IT IS WARM
ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP IS LIQUID. THE ONLY PLACES THAT STILL
COULD HAVE FROZEN PRECIP IS THE INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS
ON THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS AND HYDER. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR HYDER UNTIL 4 PM TODAY AS STEWART, BC HAS
BEEN REPORTING MODERATE OR HEAVIER SNOW ALL MORNING WITH AN
ACCUMULATION OF ABOUT 7 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT SO FAR. THE COOP
STATION IN HYDER ALSO REPORTED 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOUT 9 AM
THIS MORNING AND STILL SNOWING.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE SE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO HEAD NE TO LAND FALL NEAR SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THE MOMENT AND WILL BE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF IT BISECTING FROM EAST
TO WEST THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE UNTIL THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND
THE FRONT PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN. SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF IN HYDER AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE ONLY A FEW INCHES TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS SW WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND IT. HAVE PUT UP STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR HYDABURG FOR LATE THIS EVENING TO LATE TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS AFFECTED AS SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AND WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SHIFTS FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND BACK AGAIN BY EARLY TOMORROW. TOMORROW
LOOKS TO HAVE MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A DRYING TREND AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EXCEPT ON THE SPEED
OF THE LOW AND FRONT FOR THIS EVENING. NAM WAS WAY TOO FAST
PLACING THE LOW A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF WHERE IT ACTUALLY WAS AT THE
TIME. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER BUT STILL WAS A BIT TOO FAST COMPARED TO
THE REAL WORLD. 0Z EC AND THE UK MEANWHILE WERE TOO SLOW. THE NEW
12Z EC DECIDED TO ALSO BE A BIT SLOW BUT WAS FASTER THEN THE
PREVIOUS RUN. SO DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE 12Z EC AND THE GFS FOR
SHORT RANGE UPDATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES
WILL CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE PATTERN BEGINS TO
CHANGES AS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BREAKS DOWN
AND JET STREAM STARTS TO TAKE A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK. STILL HAVE
SEVERAL HIGH ENERGY WAVES THAT WILL AFFECT THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEK
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON WHICH WAVE
WILL DEVELOP AND WHICH ONES DO NOT.

FIRST LOW OF INTEREST TRACKS INTO BRISTOL BAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT IN CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EC DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG
THE TRAILING FRONT SOUTH OF KODIAK THAT DEEPENS TO 975 AS IT MOVES
THROUGH WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND SOLID GALES TO THE
EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY. FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME WARM AIR WITH IT
AND EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH FRONT BUT GOING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST DEVELOPS IN NE PACIFIC WEDNESDAY AND
TRACKS NE INTO SE GULF THU. GFS SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE
BETTER AND DEEPENS TO 978 MB IN SE GULF BEFORE CUTTING ACROSS
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET REACHING 80 KT OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF FRONT LATE
WED/EARLY THURSDAY. UPPED CLARENCE AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO
STORM WITH FRONT AND WILL LIKELY NEED A HWW FOR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
THU. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL ALLOW SOME COLD AIR TO DRAIN INTO
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT NORTHERLY GALES IN LYNN
CANAL. DEFORMATION ZONES APPEARS TO ACROSS CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
STARTING TO TREND JUNEAU BACK TO SNOW ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS
SEE MODERATE WAA AND WILL BE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES.

THE THIRD SYSTEM OF INTEREST HAS A VERY SIMILAR TRACK AS THE
SECOND...MOVING FROM NORTH PAC INTO SE GULF FRI NIGHT AND ACROSS
CENTRAL SE AK ON SAT. AGAIN GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND EXPECTED WITH
A MIX OF RA/SN FOR INNER CHANNELS AND RAIN SRN/COASTAL. USED A
GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR THIS.

A FOURTH STRONG LOW CURVES NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS FOR EASTERN GULF AND
STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. COLDEST OF AIR WILL RETREAT
TO FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH SNOW POTENTIAL FOR HAINES AND HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL FOR PAKT. GFS/GEM WAS USED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-035-043-051-052.

&&

EAL/MM