Gale Warning 446, NWS Juneau, AK

707 
FZAK52 PAJK 260836 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1133 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-270245-
1133 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE
OUTER COAST AND STALL THIS EVENING. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NE TO
THE EXTREME SE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN OVER SOUTHERN SE ALASKA SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ041-270245-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1133 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT
LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-270245-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1133 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-270245-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1133 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-270245-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1133 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. SW
SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SW SWELL.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-270245-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1133 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 



$$

751 
FZAK52 PAJK 261226
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-270100-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STATIONARY LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TODAY. A STRONG LOW IN THE FAR SE GULF WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ041-270100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-270100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO
9 FT LATE. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-270100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING
TO 9 FT LATE. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-270100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-270100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
150 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...A COMPLES LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NW GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU SAT. A TROF EXTENDS FROM THE NE
GULF SEWD ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THE CURVES SSW OVER THE SE
GULF. THIS TROF WILL DRIFT JUST ONSHORE THIS EVENING THEN STALL
THERE. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NE PAC WILL MOVE NNE TO THE FAR
SERN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NE ACROSS THE S-CNTRL INNER
CHANNELS AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY SAT MORNING. USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z
NAM AND ECMWF FOR TONIGHT AND SAT.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE 2 MAIN AREAS
OF CONCERN ARE THE NRN THIRD OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND THE ERN
PARTS OF THE SRN INNER CHANNELS. OVER THE N...TROF MOVING ONSHORE
AND STALLING WILL FOCUS PRECIP IN THAT AREA THIS EVENING AND A
DEFORMATION BAND WILL ALSO SET UP OVER THE AREA MAINLY ALONG A
PAHN-PAEL LINE. THINK THIS AXIS WILL BE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL EXCEPT THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNSLOPE DIMINISHING THE SNOW
IN THE PAGS ZONE LATER TONIGHT. THE PAOH ZONE WILL SEE INCREASING
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW SO THEIR SNOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED TONIGHT AS
WELL. THIS SAME FLOW WILL DIMINISH THE PRECIP IN THE PAJN AREA
OVERNIGHT. ATTM THINK MOST SNOW WILL BE AROUND PAHN AREA WHERE
GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ALSO OCCUR DUE TO PRESENCE OF COLDER
AIR IN LOWER LEVELS. THEY COULD GET AROUND 1 FOOT OF SNOW. THE
PAOH AND PAEL AREAS COULD SEE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH PAJN
AND PAGS GETTING 3 TO 6 INCHES BY 18Z SAT. WILL ISSUE WS WARNINGS
FOR THE PAHN/PAOH/PAEL ZONES...AND WW ADVYS FOR PAGS AND PAJN
ZONES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE ZONES
THOUGH DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVIER EMBEDDED SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHERE THIS WOULD SET UP
ATTM. WILL WATCH SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED.

 OVER THE S...PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD THEM. LOOKS LIKE THE NE HALF OF ZONE 26 AND NERN
THIRD OF ZONE 29 WILL GET ENOUGH PRECIP AND REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HYDER LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD EASILY SEE
ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW BY 18Z SAT...WITH NERN ZONE 26 GETTING 5 TO
8 INCHES FROM 06Z TO 18Z SAT. WILL ISSUE WS WARNINGS FOR BOTH
AREAS.

 OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE SRN AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES PAST THEM JUST TO THE
W. WILL HEADLINE STRONG WINDS IN ZONES 27 AND 28 FOR MAINLY THE
LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING SAT PERIOD. PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND 12Z WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WILL SEE RAIN OVER THE SRN ZONES
OUTSIDE THE WS WARNING AREA AND AS FAR N AS THE PASI AREA LATER
TONIGHT. TEMPS MAY RISE THRU THE NIGHT OVER THE SRN AREA AS THE
LOW BRINGS UP WARMER AIR FROM THE SSE...THEN COOLER AIR SHOULD
MOVE BACK IN ON SAT ONCE LOW MOVES INLAND.

 &&

.LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST REMAINS
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING MORE PRECIP AND WIND. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM, BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT BEST. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS HOW FAST WILL THE WARM AIR
GET ADVECTED INTO THE INNER CHANNELS AND AS A CONSEQUENCE HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL PLACES GET BEFORE THE SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN. IF IT
CHANGES OVER AT ALL. THE NAM IS TRENDING A BIT COLDER THEN THE EC
OR THE GFS WITH THE -6 DEGREES C AT 850 LINE NOT EVEN MAKING IT
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND MIDDAY MONDAY. GFS AND EC ON THE OTHER
HAND SEND THAT LINE A BIT FARTHER NORTH ALMOST TO TAKU INLET.
GENERALLY THOUGH BASED ON THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR EARLY
MONDAY MOST INNER CHANNEL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN OUTER COAST MAY
GET A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE THE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN. TENDED TO FAVOR THE EC AND
GFS OVER THE NAM BECAUSE OF BETTER AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE TWO.

WIND WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE OUTSIDE MARINE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR CLARENCE
STRAIT EARLY MONDAY. STRONG WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND OUTER COAST AS WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTING UP TO 40
KT AT TIMES.

AFTER THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, MODEL AGREEMENT FALLS APART AS
THE EXTENDED MODELS TRY TO RESOLVE SMALLER WEAKER FEATURES THAT
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. TIMING, PLACEMENT AS WELL AS STRENGTH
ARE OFF WITH EACH MODEL WANTING TO HANDLE THEM SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT.
TRENDED TOWARD THE HPC DATA TO TRY AND GET AN AVERAGE SOLUTION OUT
OF THE MESS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ026-029.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ020-025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ019-021-022.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-042-043-051-
     052.

&&

RWT/EAL