Gale Warning 442, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
146 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW NEAR CENTRAL BC COAST WILL MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM
THE SRN AREA...TAKING INVERTED TROF THAT EXTENDS N INTO THE HYDER
AREA OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROF
WILL MOVE NE INTO THE ERN GULF BY EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN
ONSHORE AND WEAKEN FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROF WILL MOVE NE TO
THE ERN GULF BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. USED A 12Z EC/GEM BLEND FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE SNOWFALL. THE SNOW SHOWERS NOW IN
THE PAJN AREA SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY
EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT MOST BY TIME NEW FORECAST GOES
OUT. THE HEAVIER SNOW FALLING AROUND HYDER SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL ALLOW THE WARNING THERE EXPIRE AT 4 PM.
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINING AREA AS WELL TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER
COAST. MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP AREA SHOULD MOVE NE INTO THE AREA
FRI MORNING AHEAD OF TROF. THIS SHOULD MEAN MORE SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...BUT SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG SO SNOWFALL SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVY LEVELS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING HEAVIER WOULD
BE AROUND HAINES AND YAKUTAT. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON DIRECTION OF
850 MB FLOW IN THOSE AREAS AND THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR
SNOWFALL THERE. IF 850 MB FLOW IS MORE SE...HAINES COULD EASILY
GET ADVY LEVEL SNOW AS THAT WILL BE UPSLOPE FOR THEM AND THEY
WILL HAVE COLD AIR TO OVERRUN AS WELL. IF IT BECOMES MORE
SLY...YAKUTAT COULD GET MORE SNOW. ATTM WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
ADVYS AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO GET BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.
GENERALLY THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL WHERE PRECIP
REMAINS ALL SNOW FRIDAY.

 OTHERWISE...SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN OUTER COAST AND FAR SRN INNER
CHANNELS DURING THE DAY FRI AS WARMER AIR IS DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF
THE TROF. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE GULF AND EVEN
GALE FORCE OVER THE WRN OUTER WATERS E OF A SFC LOW EXPECTED TO
MOVE N THRU THE CENTRAL GULF FRI. WILL ALSO HAVE SCA LEVEL WINDS
OVER SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS. REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS
SHOULD REACH 20 KT FRI AS TROF MOVES ONSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM...STILL HAVE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES OR FRONTS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL DROP
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EXTREME SOUTH WHERE WARMER AIR GETTING FORCE NORTHWARD WILL
CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. RIGHT ON ITS HEELS
IS A GALE FORCE LOW THAT IS MAKING A BEE LINE NORTH FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND EARLY SAT BRINGING MORE WIND AND PRECIP.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OUTER COAST
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL WARM UP ENOUGH TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE SNOW BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE FROM TAKU INLET AND ICE STRAIT SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS GALES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN CLARENCE STRAIT
AND STRONG WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY SAT. EVEN AT THIS LATE STAGE THE MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING TROUBLES WITH IT. THEY VARY FROM A STRONGER MORE WESTWARD
TRACK INTO CAPE DECISION TO A WEAKER LOW TRACKING FARTHER EAST
INTO SOUTHERN PRINCE OF WALES. ELECTED TO GO FOR MORE OF MIDDLE
GROUND APPROACH THAT USED THE NAM AND GEM FOR A LOW THAT MOVED INTO
CENTRAL PRINCE OF WALES.

AFTERWARD WE DO GET A DAY AND A HALF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
ROLLS A ACROSS THE GULF FOR SUN NIGHT. THIS ONE PROMISES TO BE RATHER
POTENT WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, STRONG WINDS, AND A
RATHER MARKED WARM UP AHEAD OF IT. STARTING OUT WITH THE WINDS,
EXPECTING THE USUAL GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST
WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED ALONG THE OUTER COAST
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE PRECIP WILL BE THE
TRICKY PART AS TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD ENOUGH THAT MOST
OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE SNOW. BUT THEN THE HARD PART COMES IN.
HOW MUCH SNOW WILL PLACES GET BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CHANGES THE SNOW TO RAIN IF IT DOES CHANGE OVER AT ALL.
AT THIS POINT I THINK THAT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS SOME POINT DURING
THIS EVENT. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN POINT
ANYTHING YET BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
MAY POTENTIALLY GET SEVERAL INCHES OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.

BEHIND IT THERE ARE POTENTIALLY TWO OR THREE MORE WEAKER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF INTO MID NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING MORE
RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA.

MODELS DID HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH SOME OF THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES INVOLVING WEAK SYSTEMS. NAM AND
GEM WITH SOME 12Z EC LATER ON PROVED TO BE GOOD MIDDLE GROUNDS FOR
THE MID RANGE FORECAST WITH HPC PROVING ITSELF IN THE EXTENDED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-033>036-041>043-052.

&&

RWT/EAL

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