Gale Warning 434, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
355 PM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING WAVE ON FRONT CURVING NORTHWARD TO
SWING PAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE FALLING WEAKENING LATER
THIS EVENING OFF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A PORTION OF THE ENERGY
TO BE KICKING INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ANOTHER PULLED
WEST OVER THEN NORTHERN GULF. COLD ARCTIC AIR STILL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. CONTINUED THE FORECAST
AS THE THE MODELS USED HAD BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 3 TO
4 RUNS WHILE THE OTHERS KEPT CHANGING TACKS.

WITH A VERY SIMILAR TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES MADE VERY
MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR THE FAR SW PORTION
FOR THE PANHANDLE ADVISORY FOR SNOW AMOUNTS... WITH WARNINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO THE NORTHWEST TO ELFIN COVE AND LYNN CANAL
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE HAINES
AREA. WITH THE STRONG NORTH OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE WHITE PASS REGION. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DOWN SLOPE FLOW TO KEEP THE JUNEAU ZONE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE SNOWFALL.

SNOW IS MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT THE
WINDS PERSISTING SO EXPECT SOME STRONG WIND HEADLINES THERE ON
MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER THROUGH THE WEEK AS FRONTS
AND SHORT WAVES WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AND LIFT NORTH OVER THE
PANHANDLE. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONE OF THESE WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE EVENING AND THE WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUING TO BE IN
EFFECT FOR THE GUSTAVUS AND HAINES AREAS. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVES NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CAUSE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO TURN OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF IT...DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR A SHORT TIME TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO CAUSE WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA AGAIN. THIS NEW LOW
CENTER WILL MORPH INTO A TRIPLE POINT ALONG AN OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THEREFORE AS
THE TRIPLE POINT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE IT WILL BRING WITH
IT WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR...RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...AND
RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS...THEN COOLER AIR AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH AND THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW UNDER CAA WITH EXCEPTION TO THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER ONSHORE FLOW
AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER...NOW FULLY STACKED...REMAINS IN THE GULF.
THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO AREA DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MIXED PRECIP
AND RAIN TO THE SOUTH UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION.

LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A NEW LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE CAA OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG WITH A
DRYING OFFSHORE FLOW AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO
THE SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY.

GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND POPS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM AKST MONDAY
     FOR AKZ024-026-029.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM AKST MONDAY
     FOR AKZ021-022.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ023-028.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR AKZ019-020.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ018.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-041>043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON