Gale Warning 43, NWS Juneau, AK

651 
FZAK52 PAJK 131244
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 13 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-140100-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 13 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH FRI.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS
WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL
MOVE NE TO THE SE GULF BY FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-140100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 13 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-140100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 13 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND BECOMING 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-140100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 13 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-140100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 13 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-140100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 13 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WIND SOUTHERN HALF. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY LATE. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
542 AM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A COLD UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. REBUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND
ACROSS THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS HAVE GENERATED VERY STRONG
OFFSHORE OUTFLOWS ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A TAKU WIND
DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT WILL PEAK TODAY AND EXPAND INTO MENDENHALL
VALLEY THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. A COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES 20 TO
30 BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

 STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
TODAY AND SOLID GALE FOR CROSS SOUND WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF COASTAL WATERS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND WIND CHILL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES ZONES. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA
AND A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS FROM A
LOW NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. REFRESHED THE INHERITED GRIDS WITH THE
NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRIFT EAST AND A
SECONDARY WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF TONIGHT.
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
VERY GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO A
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVES WEST FROM NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA. BEYOND
SATURDAY MORNING...GFS REVERSES THIS FEATURE AND ABSORBS IT INTO
AN UPPER TROUGH EMANATING FROM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. ECMWF MAINTAINS JET
SUPPORT FOR THIS SAME FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND
DEEPENS IT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ALASKAN PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY ABSORBING IT INTO THE LARGER UPPER
LOW DOWNSTREAM TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...BOTH MODELS
ARE DEPICTING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND INTERIOR. DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL INCLUDE GFS
BEING SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE WHEREAS ECMWF MAINTAINS
IT AS A STATIONARY AND MORE SHARPLY DEFINED FEATURE. ALSO MORE
PROMINENT IN ECMWF IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PANHANDLE NEXT THURSDAY.
AT THAT TIME...THE ECMWF DEPICTION MAINTAINS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE IN NORTHERLY AND DRY CONTINENTAL UPPER FLOW WITH THE
SOUTHERN HALF IN A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WITH A
BRIEF TRAJECTORY OVER THE GULF. THE GFS DEPICTION PLACES THE RIDGE
AXIS ON OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH WARMER...MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THIS DIFFERENCE
HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BUT IS STILL BEYOND THE LIMIT OF THE 7 DAY
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST.

 BOTH MODELS INITIALIZED THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD QUITE WELL
AND CARRIED THAT ACCURACY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MODEL
RUN...SO NO HELP IN CHOOSING A BETTER MODEL THERE. JET STREAM
STRENGTH AND LOCATION ALSO INITIALIZED WELL BY BOTH BASED ON
SATELLITE WIND DATA AND NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN OR
INTENSITY APPEAR UNTIL DIFFERENCES IN THEIR TREATMENT OF THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW DISCUSSED SHOW UP. ECMWF HAS BEEN
PERFORMING NICELY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAS BEEN SUPPORTED
WELL BY NAM. HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NAM/EC SOLUTION FOR
LONG RANGE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF
THIS CHOICE. COLD AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH WINDS...FREEZING SPRAY...AND
HAZARDOUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BEING MAJOR FACTORS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONE
25 INTO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO
ISSUE A SEPARATE WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THIS ONCE THE THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS HAS ENDED. WITH REGARD TO THE OTHER CURRENT
ADVISORIES...HAVE EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIMES OUT INTO THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THESE TIMES WILL
ACTUALLY MARK THE END OF THE WIND OR WIND CHILL EVENT IN QUESTION.
IN FACT...LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ANOTHER WIND MAXIMA FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH NOT EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVEL
CRITERIA. EXCEPTION IS THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 22 WHICH WILL
LIKELY EXPIRE ON TIME OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WAS GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH NUMEROUS LOCATIONS NOT EXPECTED TO
GET DOWN BELOW ZERO DEGREES THAT NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE EXPANDED WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES LIKELY AND A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY QUITE POSSIBLE.

SNOW RE-ENTERS THE FORECAST PICTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS A FRONT
ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE WEST AND THEN TRACKS NORTH OVER
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS ARE
BOTH QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CORRESPONDING QPF VALUES HOWEVER
NAM LIFTS MORE OF THIS PRECIP...ALL SNOW...FARTHER NORTH THAN GFS.
NET EFFECT IS WIDE SPREAD SNOWFALL WITH THE NAM SOLUTION BUT A
HIGH TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER A SMALLER ARE IN GFS. CURRENT LONG RANGE
FORECAST REFLECTS MORE OF THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MAY RESULT IN
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS STILL WELL BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS
POINT BUT WILL IMPROVE WITH TIME.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ017-020-
     	 029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013-031.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-035-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032>034-036-041-042.

&&

AHN/FRITSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1229 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ELFIN COVE              58.19N 136.34W
01/12/2011  M74.00 MPH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            APAID IN ELFIN COVE REPORTED NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 74 MPH
            AT 1017 AM AKST ON 12 JAN 2011.

1030 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
01/12/2011                                      AK   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A HOUSE IN WEST JUNEAU HAD DAMAGE TO THE METAL ROOF.

&&

NCB