Gale Warning 402, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 11, 2011, 7:15 AM AKST (16:15 UTC)

Expired

Nov 11, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

9 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

601 
FZAK51 PAJK 111616 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-120100-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE E THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AS A STORM FORCE
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF LATE FRI EVENING THEN ONSHORE
OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ011-120100-
GLACIER BAY-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW LATE.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-120100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-120100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW LATE.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-120100-
ICY STRAIT-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT LATE. SNOW LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-120100-
CROSS SOUND-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL
IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-120100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-120100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-120100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT...
EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT
LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT. RAIN LATE.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 18 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 17 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-120100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-120100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-120100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
715 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 11, 5:36 AM AKST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
536 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
DISSIPATING TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE FROM A WEAKENING LOW EAST OF DIXON ENTRANCE. NOTICEABLE
DECREASING CLOUDS OCCUR NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING TROUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AND
PATCHY FOG FORMING. MOST PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...DRIFTING EASTWARD.
GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTER
WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEAKENS AND MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH THE NAM AND GFS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE THIS
EVENING THEN MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND MOVES EAST INTO THE FORECAST DOMAIN...THE
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ROUGHS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE STORM FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTSIDE AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. THE INCOMING
FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES INITIALLY LATE
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...AFTER SATURDAYS SYSTEM THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF WEST TO KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A NEW SYSTEM MOVES OUT EASTERN ASIA TO
SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THIS WILL BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

WITH THE SATURDAY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS OR CHANGES TO RAIN. HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT
IS A LONG STRETCH OF VERY STRONG WEST WINDS. EXPECTING TO SEE GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS ALONG WITH THE
LARGE COMBINED SEAS AND HIGHER SWELL VALUES. ACCORDING TO THE WAVE
MODEL IT LOOKS AS IF THE 26 TO 31 FOOT SEAS WILL HAVE A 13 TO 14
SECOND PERIOD. THERE COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH STORM SURGE FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF CROSS SOUND AS WELL. POTENTIAL SURGE OF
UP TO 2 FEET WITH PROLONG WESTERLY WINDS SO WROTE UP A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO GIVE HEADS UP.

TEMPERATURES COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS COOLER AIR
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST SO MORE OF THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
WILL MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. FROM THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THE COOL DOWN
INTENSIFIES WITH STRONG HIGH BUILDING INTO OVER THE ALASKAN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST CANADA INCREASING THE NORTHERLY OFF SHORE
FLOW PATTERN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ017>021-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ022-023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041-042-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-022-033>036-043-051.

&&

AHN/BEZENEK

In the hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
455 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

AKZ022-023-026-027-121400-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
455 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...POTENTIAL STORM SURGE TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF CROSS SOUND
SAT THROUGH SUN...

WEST GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THE
COMBINED SEAS WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST IS 26 TO 31 FEET DURING THIS
TIME WITH A WEST SWELL OF 22 TO 25 FEET FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. A 12 TO 14 SECOND WAVE PERIOD IS FORECAST DURING
THIS EVENT.

HIGH SEA HEIGHTS AND SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CREATE A STORM SURGE
OF 1 TO 2 FEET ON TOP OF THE STANDARD DAILY TIDAL CONDITIONS FOR
COMMUNITIES WITH AN EXPOSURE TO THE THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTH OF
CROSS SOUND. RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS DUE TO INCREASED
WATER LEVELS THAT MAY ADVERSELY AFFECT BEACH AND HARBOR AREAS.

BEZENEK/BECKER

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.