Gale Warning 389, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
215 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY THERE IS A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN BOARDER AND ANOTHER ONE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN OFFSHORE
AREA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CAUSING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE OFFSHORE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...AND MIXED PRECIP OVER THE HYDER
AREA. AS THE LOW NEAR HYDER MOVES INTO B.C. THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SHOWERS AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY. TO THE NORTH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE YUKON. THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOWS TO THE SOUTH AND
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS ALREADY CAUSING SOME STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
TONIGHT SO WILL THE WINDS. MAIN AREAS TO SEE THE STRONG WINDS ARE
GAPS/VALLEYS SUCH AS HAINES AND SKAGWAY AS WELL AS THE DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS AND INCREASED WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL TO STORM
FORCE AND TO GALE FORCE FOR STEPHENS PASSAGE FOR TONIGHT.

 THESE STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTING (CAA) IN
FROM CANADA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
OVER THE NORTH RANGING TO NEAR 30 FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
DESPITE ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY THE CAA WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH...AND BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.

 MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS COLD AIR
OUTBREAK OVER THE PAST WEEK ALLOWING FOR ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. GOING FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH JUST MINOR
CHANGES. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE THE WINDS THROUGH N-S
WATERS AND GAP WINDS AND ADJUST THE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WITH THE
LATEST TRENDS. USED THE NAM12 FOR MOST UPDATES FOR ITS FINER
RESOLUTION.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...RATHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A COLD
CONTINENTAL OUTFLOW REGIME TO A WARMER WETTER MARINE REGIME. IT
ALL STARTS THURS NIGHT AS THE COLD HIGH IN CANADA IS PUSHED OFF
TO THE EAST AND A MODERATE STRENGTH FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING IN
FROM THE GULF. WIND DIRECTION AND P-TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEMS FRIDAY AND SAT AS THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT BATTLES
WITH THE REMAINING COLD AIR IN THE INNER CHANNELS.

 FRONTAL PRECIP STARTS IN YAKUTAT THURS NIGHT BUT SPREADS EAST TO
ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE PANHANDLE BY FRI AFTERNOON, BUT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP COULD CAUSE THE PRECIP TO START EARLIER PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHER HALF OF THE AREA. AS FAR AS P-TYPE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND ENOUGH THAT AREAS LIKE JUNEAU, HOONAH,
ANGOON AND ELFIN COVE NORTHWARD MAY START OUT AS SNOW FRIDAY. AS
THE SOUTHERLY PUSH CONTINUES MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HAINES AND SKAGWAY MAY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SOME TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BEFORE THE
CHANGE OVER, THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. RIGHT NOW I AM EXPECTING UP TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY FOR
GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, AND JUNEAU FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGE OVER. SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER STILL AS THE GROUND IS STILL WARM. FARTHER
NORTH, YAKUTAT IS LOOKING AT ABOUT 1 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGE OVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAINES AND SKAGWAY
ARE A BIT HARDER AS IT IS A TOSS UP ON IF THE SIGNIFICANT QPF WILL
GET THERE AND WHETHER HAINES AND THE HIGHWAY WILL EXPERIENCE ONE
OF ITS USUAL OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENTS. GOING FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES IN
HAINES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE GOING WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
IN SKAGWAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF
THEM.

 AS FAR AS WIND, MOST AREAS WILL START OUT WITH N OR NE WINDS
THURS NIGHT BUT WILL CHANGE TO S OR SW BY SAT. STRONG WIND
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OUTER
COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT
COMES ASHORE. THE MARINE REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT AND LOW COMES ACROSS THE GULF
FOR SUN AFTERNOON.

 MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT TOO BAD FOR FRIDAY'S SYSTEM. NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT NOT BY MUCH.
DIFFERENCE BECOME MORE APPARENT IN FOR THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
GFS IS TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE WITH THE BERING SEA LOW THEN
THE EC IS. DECIDED TO STICK WITH NAM AND EC FOR THE MID RANGE
FORECAST OUT TO SAT NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO MORE HPC FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE
MID RANGE AND BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE EXTENDED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-022-031-036-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-032>034-041>043-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

HANNON/EAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

AKZ017>022-024>026-031800-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
333 PM AKDT WED NOV 2 2011

...FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE
AS WELL AS THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT WILL FALL AND RANGE FROM THE TEENS NEAR YAKUTAT, HAINES
AND SKAGWAY TO NEAR 30 FOR PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL. THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE BLACK ICE ALONG ROADWAYS AND CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. TRAVEL WITH CAUTION AS ROADS WILL BE SLIPPERY...REDUCE
SPEEDS AND KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE FROM OTHER CARS.