Gale Warning 369, NWS Juneau, AK

692 
FZAK67 PAJK 041135
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-050100-
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY.   

$$

PKZ310-050100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT FRI NOV 4 2011 

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
243 PM AKDT THU NOV 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE
TRANSITION FROM A COLD CONTINENTAL REGIME TO A WARM MOIST MARINE
REGIME. THE TRICKY PART COME FROM FIGURING OUT HOW WELL
ENTRENCHED THE COLD AIR IN THE INNER CHANNELS IS. AS IT IS RIGHT
NOW THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE AND OUT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AS DEW POINTS AT MOST LOCATIONS, EVEN THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS, ARE IN THE LOW TEENS TO MID 20S. NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE PANHANDLE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN
LYNN CANAL AND SOME GUSTY WIND OUT OF TAKU INLET AND THE STIKINE
RIVER VALLEY.

 INTO TONIGHT THE REMAINING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
COLD HIGH IN THE CANADIAN INTERIOR MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WHAT
FOLLOWS IT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS A BATTLE BETWEEN THE
WARM S TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING FRONT FROM THE GULF AND
THE LINGERING COLD CALM TO LIGHT EAST FLOW IN THE INNER CHANNELS.
THIS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FOR WHEN THE PRECIP STARTS AS WITH THE
LINGERING COLD AIR THE PRECIP IN MOST PLACES WILL START OUT AS
SNOW. YAKUTAT WILL START PRECIPING LATE TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE
ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION BEFORE STARTING TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN LATE FRI MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE THE
PRECIP WILL NOT REACH US UNTIL FRI WITH SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE THE MAIN
MOISTURE MASS REACHES THE PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FOR AREAS
LIKE GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, AND JUNEAU WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER
SOUTH BEFORE THE PRECIP STARTS MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH HAINES AND SKAGWAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
REMAIN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE MAIN QPF
WILL REACH THAT FAR NORTH THAT SOON SO ONLY HAVE ABOUT 1 TO
3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR THEM.

 AS FOR THE WINDS, GALES IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY. IN THE INNER CHANNELS
MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SWITCHED AROUND TO SOUTH FROM A NORTHERLY
OUTFLOW WIND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE LYNN
CANAL, HAINES, AND SKAGWAY WHERE THE WIND MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON.

 MODEL AGREEMENT WAS GOOD FOR THE PERIOD. DECIDED TO STICK WITH
EC/NAM FOR UPDATES AS IT APPEARED THAT THEY INITIALIZED RATHER
WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE AK GULF FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ESE MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WEAKEN. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN OR AN RAIN SOW MIX AS WARMER MID LEVEL AIR MASS
MOVES IN BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT. SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH AMOUNT
OF WARMING, NAM KEEPING THE REGIONS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WHILE ECMWF AND GFS INCREASE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID MAY SEE SOME HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BUT AS QPF VALUES ARE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AK
GULF AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA SUNDAY. THIS LOW
PREDICTED TO MOVES OVER THE AK PENINSULA AND INTO THE AK GULF MON
AFTERNOON. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES BEFORE MON THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE WITH THE POSITION
OF THIS NEXT LOW. PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
USED A BLEND OF 12Z EC AND INHERITED GRIDS THEN 12Z EC AND HPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>036-041-042.

&&

EAL/PRB