Gale Warning 354, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
559 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2011

.SHORT TERM...MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE RATHER POTENT
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AT THE MOMENT. THE LOW CENTER
IS HOVERING JUST SOUTHWEST OF CAPE DECISION BASED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND DRIFTING NORTHEAST. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS ABOUT 970 MB BASED ON THE 973.3 MB PRESSURE READING FROM CAPE
DECISION AT 12Z. THIS IS SOMEWHAT UP FROM 969 MB THAT WAS
RECORDED AS IT PASSED BUOY 46205 EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS
AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN NOTE WORTHY. WINDS GUSTS HAVE SO FAR
PEAKED AT 60 MPH AT ANNETTE, 56 MPH AT KETCHIKAN, 52 MPH AT
HYDABURG, 87 MPH AT CAPE DECISION, AND 74 MPH AT LINCOLN ROCK.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR PUBLIC ZONES 26, 27, AND
28 UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORM WARNINGS UP FOR THE
ADJACENT MARINE ZONES. STRONG WIND HEADLINES ALSO REMAIN UP FOR
ZONES 29, 23 AND 25. THE FORMER TWO BEING STRONG WINDS FROM THE
LOW, AND THE LATTER ONE BEING A MOUNTAIN WAVE CASE FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT HAS NOT BEEN VERY
HEAVY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RECORDED AS JUST A BIT OVER A HALF
INCH IN SIX HOURS AT THORN RIVER AND HAIDA RAWS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE DIEING DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. BY 4 PM MOST OF THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THEN 40 MPH GUSTS.
THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT MAY STILL BE BLOWING GALE THIS EVENING.
PRECIP WILL STILL BE RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EASTERLY FLOW FARTHER
NORTH WILL STILL BE LIMITING QPF VALUES. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT GOOD. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
BUT THE GFS IS CURRENTLY TOO FAR WEST. THE GFS IS ALSO ABOUT 4 MB
TOO WEAK. EARLIER MODEL RUNS OF MOST OF THE MODELS WERE ALSO TOO
WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL BUT HAVE SINCE RECTIFIED THIS. MODEL
WINDS WERE WELL REPRESENTED AS MOST WORKED WELL WITH WHAT AN
EARLIER WINDSAT PASS SHOWED. ELECTED TO USE UK/EC FOR PRESSURE
WITH NAM FOR WINDS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

INTO TONIGHT, LOW WILL HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED AWAY AND MOVED
INTO CANADA. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A WEAK RIDGE THAT WILL CAUSE A
SWITCH IN THE WIND DIRECTION IN N-S CHANNELS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY IN THE EVENING. MEANWHILE WIND AND RAIN WILL BE STARTING TO
INCREASE IN THE GULF AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS ANOTHER FRONT
RAPIDLY MOVES IN. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO SPREAD INTO THE
OUTER COASTAL MARINE ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO START SHOWING UP
AGAIN IN CLARENCE STRAIT. MODEL AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT IS GOOD SO
DECIDED TO STICK WITH A GFS/NAM BLEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z MON BUT THEN DIVERGE
SUBSTANTIALLY ON HANDLING OF 2 DEVELOPING WAVE. TRENDED TO EC PRES
FOR GRIDS THROUGH 84 HRS AND STAYED WITH OFFICIAL AND HPC PRODUCTS BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF WELL DEVELOPED WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH EAST ALASKA. A NEW 970 MB LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF ON SATURDAY AND WILL SEND A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
AND GALES INTO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AS A WAVE LIFTS NE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING ENHANCED RAINS
AND WIND TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT AND LESS STABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN EASTERN GULF WITH SOLID GALES
MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY. A STRONG WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO NE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE WET ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA STALLS AS THE WEAK WAVES LIFTS NORTHEAST. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL ALLOW RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN. WILL HAVE SOLID SMCR TO MIN GALES WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT SHOULD EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT
RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH
COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT MAKING ATMO UNSTABLE. AT SAME TIME HAVE LOW
REFORMING IN YUKON WHILE RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST GULF FOR SLY
SMCR THROUGH INNER CHANNELS.

WILL START TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN NW PANHANDLE COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWS APPROACHING FREEZING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED RA AND
SN SHOWER OR PELLETS INTO MON. WILL HAVE SOLID SMCR TO MIN GALES
WESTERLY ACROSS GULF KEEP SEAS ABOVE 15 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER STRONG OCLUDDED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF BY
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY. A WAVE ALONG
THIS FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. TIN HIS CASE IT WOULD YIELD STORM FORCE SE WINDS
FOR THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS LATE TUESDAY.
AGAIN IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MDT-HVY RAIN AND A SLOWER EASTERLY
RATE OF MOVEMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. COLDER UPPER
TROUGH AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

.AJK
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1
PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026>028. STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 AM AKDT
THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025. STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING
FOR AKZ023. STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042. GALE WARNING FOR
PKZ012-031>035-043. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ011-013-021-022-051-052.

&&

EAL/MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
853 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 13 N KETCHIKAN          55.53N 131.65W
10/28/2011  E62.00 MPH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS BEGAN AROUND 130 AM WITH SUSTAINDS OF 35 TO 55 AND
            HIGHER GUSTS. POWER OUTAGE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
            MORNING.

0200 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ANNETTE                 55.04N 131.59W
10/28/2011  M60.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

            ANNETTE ASOS REPORTED WINDS 1334G52KT. THE GUST OF 60 MPH
            ALSO REPORTED AT 3 AM OBSERAVTION AS WELL.

0653 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KETCHIKAN               55.34N 131.65W
10/28/2011  M63.00 MPH                          AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            ROOF WIND SENSOR AT THE KETCHIKAN AIRPORT REPORTED
            12035G55KT OR 63 MPH AT 753 AM THE ASOS REPORTED A GUST
            TO 60 MPH

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 40 NNW KLAWOCK          56.09N 133.49W
10/28/2011  E65.00 MPH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            EDNA BAY SOUTHEAST WIND 57 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 75
            MPH. POSSIBLE TREE DOWN. NO DAMAGE

&&

BMB