Gale Warning 353, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE NNE TO NEAR CAPE DECISION
BY 18Z FRI...THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND HEAD NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE FRI AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET AS
THEY HAD EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON STORM TRACK BUT WANTED TO GET
MIDDLE GROUND AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HIGH WINDS ON THE SE SIDE OF THE
STORM. THE WINDS WILL COME IN 2 PHASES. FIRST PHASE IS ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WITH THIS WILL BE MORE ELY SO
THEY WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED TO EXPOSED AREAS. THE BIGGER CONCERN
IS WITH SECOND WRAP OF FRONT EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE DURING FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT ORIENTATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE FAIRLY
GOOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS OVER THE SRN AREA. THIS IS
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH
LIKELY. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 AS
WELL AS AREAS ALONG NRN CLARENCE STRAIT IN SRN ZONE 26. HAVE STORM
WARNINGS FOR CLARENCE STRAIT AND FAR SERN GULF AREA. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE CLARENCE STRAIT AREA FOR POTENTIAL HURCN FORCE WINDS FRI
MORNING HOWEVER AS SECOND WRAP FEATURE MOVES IN. WENT MAX STORM
THERE FOR NOW.

WILL HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 23 AND 29 AS
WELL...MAINLY FOR SRN BARANOF ISLAND IN 23 AND SW COAST OF ZONE
29. MAY ALSO HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN
JUNEAU...AS LOCALLY STRONG NELY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...WHEN CONDITIONS ARE BEST FOR MINOR MTN WAVE DEVELOPMENT.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY FRI MORNING AS ENE RIDGE TOP
FLOW SHIFTS TO SE.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP WILL DECREASE OVER THE NRN AREAS THIS EVENING
AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE S TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES THERE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SOME RAIN MAY GET INTO THE N-CENTRAL AREA FRI AS 850 MB FLOW
TURNS SELY BUT LOWER LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL MEAN ERN EXPOSURES WILL
BE THE WETTEST. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE PAOH AREA IN THE
N-CENTRAL ZONES FRI. THE PAYA AREA WILL DRY OUT AND SEE ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE GOTTEN INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE AND WAS NOT BEING USED WITH
GFS/UKMET THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE
WITH HPC IN THE LATE SECTIONS.

WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TOO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF ROUGHLY EVERY 36 TO 48
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS TYPICAL ALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
GALE FORCE FRONTAL BAND EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN GULF EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH/COLD POOL TROUGH ON EARLY
SUNDAY. RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECTING TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
GULF EARLY TUESDAY...THE FOLLOW ON SYSTEM MOVING NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY PERIOD MODELS
SUGGESTING A 965-ISH MB LOW INTO THE BERING SEA.

AS A RESULT CHANCE OF RAIN OR BETTER EXPECTED NEARLY THE ENTIRE
WEEK FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO LATE NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF VERY
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTS AND THEN LOWERING AS THE AS THE
SHOWERS SPREAD IN. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THAT THE
COLD POOL ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY IS LOOKING
RATHER COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -8 TO -10 INTO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GULF WHICH COULD EASILY RESULT IN THE
SHOWERS BEING MIXED OR SNOW DURING THE EARLY MID WEEK TIME FRAME
UNTIL THE DEEP LOW IN THE BERING SPREADS SOME WARMER AIR BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GULF.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031>035-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-051-052.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK