Gale Warning 349, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
358 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...989 MB LOW JUST SW PAYA WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR
PAYA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN REFORM OVER THE SRN YUKON THIS
EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE ENE AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTERWARD. SFC
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AND SE AK TONIGHT...THEN
DRIFT JUST E OF THE PANHANDLE THU. UPPER TROF OVER WRN AK S INTO
THE N-CNTRL PAC WILL MOVE E TO THE WRN GULF BY LATE THU.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW LONG STRONGER WINDS REMAIN. RIGHT
NOW THERE ARE 35-40KT WLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
AND PART OF NRN GULF S OF THE LOW. ALSO...GALE FORCE WLYS ARE
GETTING INTO CROSS SOUND AND GALE FORCE SLYS ARE OCCURRING IN LYNN
CANAL. EXPECT THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO DECREASE BELOW SCA LEVELS
TONIGHT...WHILE CROSS SOUND WINDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
DIMINISH. LYNN CANAL WILL REMAIN WINDY THE LONGEST WITH GALES
LIKELY UNTIL DAYBREAK THU. REMAINING WATERS WILL SEE SCA LEVEL
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK
FROM WLY TO SELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS LOW MOVES IN TO THE SW
GULF AND SFC RIDGE MOVES E OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. PRECIP MAY
TRANSITION TO A MORE STRATIFORM CHARACTER THU AS MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE ERN GULF AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF.
WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION THU...THINK
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STEADIER THRU THE DAY SO WILL STAY
WITH STRATIFORM WORDING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.

THE SEAS OVER THE ERN GULF ARE RUNNING IN THE 18 TO 25+ FT RANGE.
EXPECT THE SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU THU. LOCALIZED COASTAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY OCCURRING AROUND THE PAYA AREA ATTM DUE TO
COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH TIDE...SW FLOW...AND LARGE SW SWELLS.
THIS SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON AS TIDE FALLS OFF QUICKLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING SYSTEM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE MODEL SOLUTION I USED ENDED UP BEING THE FURTHEST
EAST OF THE COLLECTION WHICH COULD BE POSSIBLE BE AN ISSUE IF IT
IS A MORE WESTERN TRACK. WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AND THE LOW
LOOK TO BE STORM FORCE OR MAX GALES FOR THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES
AND OVER THE SOUTHERN LAND AREAS OF ZONES 27 AND 28 ENDED UP WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH. A FURTHER WEST TRACK WILL ALTER WIND
DIRECTIONS AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION
HARDER.

THE LOW IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RIDGE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHERN BERING MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SOUTH OF
KODIAK FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND SWEEPS INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW
DISSIPATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE I LEFT MORE IN LINE WITH
THE NEW HPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF MONDAY AND HEADED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO THE WEEKEND...AND FOR THE LATER PERIODS
IS BELOW AVERAGE BUT CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AND WINDY AT TIMES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-031>035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK