High Wind Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

306 
WWAK77 PAJK 280336
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
736 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

AKZ027-028-281300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0010.111028T0900Z-111028T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
736 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM AKDT
FRIDAY...

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 
  MPH.

* TIMING...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT IN EXPOSED AREAS...WITH MORE 
  WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY FRI MORNING. STRONGEST 
  WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRI MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES...KNOCK 
  DOWN TREES AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT FRI OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ026-281300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0010.111028T1200Z-111028T2100Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
736 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM AKDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...AREAS ALONG NORTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES...KNOCK 
  DOWN TREES AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT FRI OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$


FRITSCH

758 
WWAK77 PAJK 281219
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
419 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2011

AKZ026>028-282100-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-111028T2100Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
419 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG CLARENCE
  STRAIT

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL
  BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES...KNOCK 
  DOWN TREES AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT FRI OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

471 
WWAK77 PAJK 282007
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1207 PM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2011


AKZ026>028-282115-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-111028T2100Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1207 PM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

THE STRONG LOW THIS MORNING AS MOVED INLAND AND IS WEAKENING.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. A FEW AREAS ARE STILL
GUSTING TO 55 MPH...HOWEVER THOSE SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 2 PM. 

THE PEAK WINDS FROM THIS EVENT WERE 65 MPH IN EDNA BAY...63 MPH IN
THE KETCHIKAN AREA...60 MPH IN ANNETTE. MARINE OBSERVATION SITES
GUSTS TO 86 MPH AT CAPE DECISION ON THE OUTER COAST AND 102 MPH AT
LINCOLN ROCK IN NORTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT. 

$$

BEZENEK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

.SHORT TERM...SOMEWHAT QUIET START TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
TODAY. PANHANDLE IS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE THAT IS GETTING SHOVED TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE RIDGE IS SOMEWHAT DIRTY AS SW ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING IN PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIP REMAINS RAIN AT SEA LEVEL BUT SOME SNOW MAY BE FALLING AT
WHITE PASS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS ARE A BIT FRISKY IN
SOME PLACES. LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY ARE STILL SUFFERING FROM THE
REMAINING STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FROM THE LAST SYSTEM AS
SKAGWAY BEEN GUSTING TO 40 MPH AND ELDRED ROCK HAS BEEN BLOWING
ABOUT 30 KT. CROSS SOUND HAS ALSO HAD WIND BLOWING TO 30 KT AS
WELL.

THE PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS SW ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS IN THE N-S CHANNELS WILL BE CALMING DOWN AND
EVENTUALLY SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM COMES INTO PLAY.

THINGS START TO BECOME INTERESTING TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM COME UP FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE
STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLES WITH THE TRACK. NAM IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER AS IT IS SUGGESTING A TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WHICH IS A BIT EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS
WHICH ARE TAKING IT INTO CAPE DECISION. NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO ABOUT
7 TO 8 MB WEAKER THEN THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. THIS
BECOMES A PROBLEM FOR HOW MUCH WIND THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL GET.
THE STRONGER CENTRAL PRESSURE IS TENDING TOWARD MORE WIND BUT THE
FARTHER WEST LOW TRACK MEANS THAT THE STRONGER WINDS MAY REMAIN
OFFSHORE UNTIL THE LOW STARTS GETTING CLOSE TO THE COAST. BY THAT
POINT THE LOW MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
MIDDLE GROUND OF USING THE GFS POSITION AND MANUALLY ADJUSTING THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE TO WHAT THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. THE
RESULT IS STORM WARNINGS FOR COASTAL ZONE 41 WITH STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR HYDABURG AND KETCHIKAN.

RAIN WILL ALSO BE SHOWING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE FARTHER NORTH
YOU ARE THE MORE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WILL
LIMIT RAIN FALL VALUES. I ONLY HAVE LIKELY POPS OUT FOR THE NORTH
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN STRONG SW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
IN GENERAL EXPECT RATHER WET CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN ALOFT
BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST WILL BE A DEEP 970 MB LOW THAT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR CAPE
DECISION FRIDAY MORNING AND WEAKENS QUICKLY AS IT CROSSES SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A RIDGE BUILDS NORTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A 970 MB LOW NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND THAT SENDS A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THAT WEAKENS SLOWLY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY COLD TROUGH
FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY. A RIDGE REBUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY.
MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN GULF MONDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY.

970 MB LOW MOVING ONSHORE CDE FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE STRONG GALE
FORCE WIND FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY THAT SHIFT TO THE
SW BY AFTERNOON AS LOW MOVES INLAND. A SW GALE AND 25 FT SEAS SPREAD
ACROSS SE GULF FRIDAY. N-NE WIND REACH SMCR LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN
HALF. HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE 1-2 INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON BUT POPS AND QPF DROP OFF
QUICKLY TO NORTH.

WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD IN WITH BUILDING RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.THIS ALSO WILL SHIFT WINDS TO MIN SLY SMCR ACROSS NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEXT FRONT SPREADS
SOLID SE GALES INTO EASTERN GULF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL STILL HAVE GALES FOR SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND
SMCR SE WIND FOR CENTRAL AND NRN. RAIN WILL BE MDT TO HEAVY AT
TIMES AND SINCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SLOWLY WILL SEE FAIRLY LARGE
QPF AMOUNTS THAT COULD GO TO 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTH TO 1 INCH IN
NORTH. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 2500 FT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT WILL DROP TO AROUND 1500 FEET AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SHOWERS RETURN IN WESTERLY FLOW OVER FLAT RIDGE SUNDAY.

A SECOND COLDER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. MODERATE RAIN
WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE.
BEHIND THIS FRONT CAA ADVECTION WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW
100O FEET AND WILL PROBABLY SEE A BURST OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
DOWN TO SEAS LEVEL BEFORE ENDING ON TUE.

HAD GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH LONG
TERM. STILL HAVE SOME POSITIONAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
INDIVIDUAL LOWS BUT RESULT IN SAME SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR PANHANDLE.
USED AND AVERAGE GFS/EC POSITION FOR LOWS BUT KEEP DEPTHS AND
DEEPEST LEVELS TO KEEP STRONG GALES TO MIN STORMS IN FCST.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-036-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034-051-052.

&&

EAL/MM