Gale Warning 278, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
319 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...OPEN WV ON POLAR FRONT ZONE ABOUT 400 NM SSW OF
PASI SHOULD UNDERGO CYCLOGENISIS WITH A 1006 MB CENTER 120 NM SW
PASI AT 03Z WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 30 KT ON EAST SIDE.
THIS SYSTEM IS SIGNIFICANT FOR BOTH THE QPF AND WINDS. NOTE BOTH
ON THE TABLE BELOW.

 CYCLOGENTIC SYSTEM WILL HIT A LIMIT TO DEEPENING EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING N TOWARD PAYA BY 09Z TONIGHT,
BUT LEAVE A STRONGER SE PRES GRAD ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
NAM AND EC AND PRE-EXISTING FORECASTS WERE USED IN CONCERT TO
GENERATE FORECASTS THAT APPROXIMATES THE CONCEPTUAL MODELS
APPLIED.

.LONG TERM...MODLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
WITH NO BIG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
CONTINUED TO USE THE GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN HPC AFTER THAT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SAT WITH A
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WILL TAPPER OFF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LESS
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NIGHT THROUGH
SAT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT.

THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF. THE NEWER
OPERATIONAL MODELS AREA INDICATING A SLOWER AND WEAKER SYSTEM AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO INDICATE THIS. SO WITH THAT SAID THERE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ026.
         AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-033>036-041-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

JBT/ABJ