Gale Warning 277, NWS Juneau, AK

128 
FZAK52 PAJK 090150 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
549 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-091400-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL DEEPEN TO 1006 MB AS IT
REACHES THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING CAPE FAIRWEATHER LATE TONIGHT.   

$$

PKZ041-091400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
549 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12
FT THEN SUBSIDING LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-091400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
549 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
LATE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT THEN SUBSIDING LATE. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-091400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
549 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 35 KT...THEN
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT...SUBSIDING LATE.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-091400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
549 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9
FT. RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-091400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
549 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

555 
FZAK52 PAJK 091146
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-100100-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FRONT OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-100100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. S
SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-100100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-100100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. S
SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-100100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-100100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 9 2011 

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
319 PM AKDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...OPEN WV ON POLAR FRONT ZONE ABOUT 400 NM SSW OF
PASI SHOULD UNDERGO CYCLOGENISIS WITH A 1006 MB CENTER 120 NM SW
PASI AT 03Z WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 30 KT ON EAST SIDE.
THIS SYSTEM IS SIGNIFICANT FOR BOTH THE QPF AND WINDS. NOTE BOTH
ON THE TABLE BELOW.

 CYCLOGENTIC SYSTEM WILL HIT A LIMIT TO DEEPENING EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING N TOWARD PAYA BY 09Z TONIGHT,
BUT LEAVE A STRONGER SE PRES GRAD ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
NAM AND EC AND PRE-EXISTING FORECASTS WERE USED IN CONCERT TO
GENERATE FORECASTS THAT APPROXIMATES THE CONCEPTUAL MODELS
APPLIED.

.LONG TERM...MODLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
WITH NO BIG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
CONTINUED TO USE THE GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN HPC AFTER THAT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NE
PACIFIC WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SAT WITH A
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS WILL TAPPER OFF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LESS
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NIGHT THROUGH
SAT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT.

THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF. THE NEWER
OPERATIONAL MODELS AREA INDICATING A SLOWER AND WEAKER SYSTEM AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO INDICATE THIS. SO WITH THAT SAID THERE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ026.
         AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-033>036-041-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

JBT/ABJ