Gale Warning 244, NWS Juneau, AK

758 
FZAK52 PAJK 152331
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-161400-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 995 MB LOW IN THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT SE OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TUE. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH TUE.  

$$

PKZ041-161400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-161400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-161400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-161400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-161400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT IN THE
EVENING SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
541 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...WET WEATHER CONTINUES AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW AND
WEATHER FRONT THAT ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. SOME
12 HOUR PRECIP AMOUNTS THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FROM AUTOMATED
PRECIP SITES AS OF 4 AM INCLUDE .57 INCHES AT THE RIVER GAGE ON
UPPER EARL WEST CREEK, .74 AT THE TAKU RIVER GAGE, .30 AT THE
JUNEAU WEATHER OFFICE, AND .62 AT SOUTH DOUGLAS BOAT HARBOR. RAIN
CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED AT VARIOUS SITES THIS MORNING. WIND AND
WAVES ARE NOT MUCH OF A PROBLEM YET THIS MORNING AS MOST SITES
ARE REPORTING 20 KT OR LESS WINDS AND LESS THAN 5 FT SEAS. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN MARINE ZONE 52 WHERE BUOY 82 HAS BEEN
REPORTING 25 TO 30 KT WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THE BARRIER JET
ALONG THE NORTH COAST SETS UP. IT IS ALSO REPORTING UP TO 9 FT
SEAS, WITH MOST OF THIS COMING FROM WIND WAVE RATHER THAN SWELL.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE OUTER COAST
WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP FORM A WEAK
BARRIER JET ALONG THE OUTER COAST THAT WILL PRODUCE WINDS UP TO
MIN GALE FORCE BY MID DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY SHOW UP WHERE
OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS GAP WINDS AND TIP JETS ADD TO THE STRENGTH
LIKE OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND ALONG SOUTHERN BARANOF. FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS I AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING HIGHER THEN SMALL CRAFT
WINDS. THESE WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO CROSS SOUND, SOUTHERN
CHATHAM, SUMNER, AND CLARENCE STRAIT WHERE THE WINDS FROM THE OPEN
WATERS WILL BE FORCED THROUGH THE NARROW TERRAIN. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.

AS FOR THE RAIN, IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH SOME HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE NORTH AND MOVING TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. 6-HOUR QPF VALUES REMAIN HIGH FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT EDGING INTO THE HALF INCH RANGE IN SOME CASES.
RESENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES STILL SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 1.3
INCH TPW OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF HEADING FOR THE PANHANDLE.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT RANGE TODAY. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCES WERE IN THE WIND FIELDS SUGGESTED. THE EC AND UK WERE
A BIT TOO WEAK WITH THE WINDS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM WERE
SUGGESTING MIN GALES ALONG THE OUTER COAST. DECIDED ON A NAM/GFS
BLEND FOR UPDATING THE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THRU SUNDAY/...STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER
JUST OFF THE NORTH PANHANDLE COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INLAND AND
WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...YAKUTAT AREA WILL SEE
A PERIOD OF REDUCED RAINFALL WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNING
OFFSHORE AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY THE
GREATEST PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING
WINDS THROUGH CROSS SOUND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST...PULLING
IN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHATHAM STRAIT...ALTHOUGH WEAKER SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE N-S ORIENTED CHANNELS.
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH EXPECT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS TO DECREASE
FOR CROSS SOUND BUT CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR CLARENCE
STRAIT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE LATER WED AND
THURSDAY...OVERALL FLOW WILL STILL BE ONSHORE BUT MOISTURE IS
REDUCED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEING MORE OFFSHORE.
PRECIP WILL BE FURTHER REDUCED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE SERN GULF...BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THURS AND MOVE NORTH AND INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN TO THE GULF AND
DEEPENS RESULTING IN OCCNLY HEAVY PRECIP. MODELS HAVE DIFFERED
QUITE A BIT WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW...KEEPING
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS/SEAS BELOW AVERAGE...HOWEVER THE
TREND HAS BEEN AN INCREASINGLY WET LOOK TO THE WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-042-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033>036-041-052.

&&

EAL/HANNON