Gale Warning 242, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A DEVELOPING
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A COLD FRONT ORGANIZING AND
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF.
A DISSIPATING LOW JUST SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD
WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED NORTH TO NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. A BRIEF
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND OCCURRED ACROSS CLARENCE STRAIT ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS. SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN ENHANCED OVER THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS BLOWING
OVER SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS. AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RAIN STARTED IN YAKUTAT AREA BY MID MORNING AND
EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED GRIDS WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SITKA AND JUNEAU TONIGHT. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A BIT DELAYED
ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN BAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SREF HINTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUS WILL MENTION THE RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES. ALONG WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM...LOCAL WIND WAVES WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS UP TO 6 FEET TONIGHT AND
REMAIN AT 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. SOLID SMALL CRAFT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
INNER CHANNELS WITH OCEAN ENTRANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ MON NIGHT TO SUNDAY / THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL LIFT INTO THE PANHANDLE AREA AND DISSIPATE BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RESIDUAL LOW REMAINING NEAR THE COOK INLET
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE BREAK OFF
LOW FROM THE FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH I EXPECT THIS LOW TO BE WEAKENING AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST SEEMED TO BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE NEW HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOR PRESSURE SO DID LITTLE CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED...BUT I MAY HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER A
LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND WEATHER. TREND HAS A LARGER LOW (MID 980
MB) MOVING TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY SATURDAY. WHICH THEY ARE
SUGGESTING A WIDESPREAD RAIN FALL PATTERN AND BASED ON STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF THE LOW SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS THAN HAS BEEN
SEEN SINCE SPRING OVERALL.

GENERAL FORECAST IDEA IS DAMP TO WET THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO GOOD FOR THE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN A SLOW DECAY OF THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-022-033-035-036-041>043-
     051-052.

&&

AHN/BEZENEK