Gale Warning 227, NWS Juneau, AK

056 
FZAK52 PAJK 040504 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
903 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-042315-
903 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE AK TONIGHT WILL
MOVE E INTO CANADA BY WED MORNING AS A GALE FORCE LOW ENTERS THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL OVER THE PANHANDLE
ON WED. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS N THROUGH THU MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-042315-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
903 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-042315-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
903 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING
TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-042315-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
903 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
LATE. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-042315-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
903 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-042315-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
903 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

094 
FZAK52 PAJK 041131
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-050100-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AS IT
DRIFTS OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY.  

$$

PKZ041-050100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-050100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO
13 FT LATE. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-050100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-050100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-050100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SW 10 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING
TO 9 FT LATE.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

249 
FZAK52 PAJK 042320
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-051400-
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL BECOME A TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY THU MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND SHEAR APART THROUGH THU EVENING.
OUTLOOK. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL PUSH ANOTHER
WEATHER FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-051400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-051400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-051400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. OUT OF CROSS
SOUND...GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-051400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-051400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKDT TUE MAY 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN
FROM YAKUTAT SOUTHEAST TO HYDER EXCEPT NORTHERN MOST AREAS OF
SKAGWAY AND HAINES. ENHANCED SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS MAINTAINS SMALL CRAFT WIND FOR
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SKAGWAY AND
HAINES. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF PUSHES AN OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WITH ITS TRIPLE POINT ORGANIZING NEAR
55N/140W.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
CANADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE OCCLUSION WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE COAST TONIGHT THEN STALL OVER THE PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM FOR THE LOW TRACK
AND THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WERE BLEND 50/50 OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF.

CONTINUED ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH INCOMING FRONT...THE
FORECAST DOMAIN WILL REMAIN WET WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES FROM YAKUTAT EAST
TO HAINES AND SKAGWAY WHERE THE ONSET OF RAIN BAND DELAYED UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS CONCENTRATED
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOSING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CEASE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND MORE EAST-
WEST ORIENTED GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREAS. THE
INCOMING LOW WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS AND SOLID SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER REST OF THE OUTSIDE
WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS INCLUDING CROSS SOUND.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...THE GALE FORCE WINDS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT RANGE
SECTION ABOVE WILL EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MARINE ZONES
41 AND 42. NO FURTHER GALE FORCE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY (DAY 5). CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.  CHANGES ARE SMALL AND
PRIMARILY OCCUR AS RAISED POPS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
GFS MODEL HAS RESULTED IN IT BEING THE PRINCIPAL GUIDANCE.

FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH 00Z MON THE FIVE-WAVE 500H GFS DEPICTS A
CHANGE TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT 00Z MON THE ACCOCD LONG WAVE FIELD
INCLUDES A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FM A 500H OVER WRANGELL
ISLAND TO OVER A CYDA TO PANT LINE.

LONG-RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD UNTIL THIS WEEKEND, AND THE
AK- HPC DISCUSSION MAKES THE CASE THAT THE GFS HAS A MORE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION WITH THE EC TENDING TO ADJUST TO IT. THEREFORE THE 0312
GFS SOLUTION WAS USED AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR NEARLY ALL FIELDS
ALL THE WAY THROUGH DAY 7. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO USE OF
ADDITIONAL MODEL FIELDS IN A BLEND FOR TIMES BEFORE THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DID FACTOR IN
SOME CLIMATOLOGY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-033>036-043-051.

&&

AHN/JBT