Gale Warning 209, NWS Juneau, AK

410 
FZAK67 PAJK 022325
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-031400-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A
971 MB STORM IN THE NE GULF SAT NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
ABOUT 175 NM S OF KODIAK SUN AS A 982 MB GALE. OUTLOOK... WIND
WILL DIMINISH MON BUT SWELL WILL INCREASE TO 15 FT OR MORE. 

$$

PKZ310-031400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

975 
FZAK67 PAJK 030621 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1021 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040030-
1021 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A
966 MB STORM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TO ABOUT 175 NM S OF KODIAK SUN AS A 972 MB GALE.
OUTLOOK...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON BUT SWELL WILL INCREASE TO
15 FT OR MORE. 

$$

PKZ310-040030-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1021 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

460 
FZAK67 PAJK 031140
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040100-
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STORM FORCE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MON
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
MOVE EAST AND THROUGH SE ALASKA SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-040100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

905 
FZAK67 PAJK 032328
OFFAJK
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011
 
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W
 
WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.
 
PKZ398-041400- 
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 972 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
EAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
SE ALASKA TONIGHT. SWELL HEIGHTS UP TO 25 FEET WILL LAST THROUGH
TUE NIGHT.
$$ 
 
PKZ310-041400- 
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST- 
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
414 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GULF TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY.

 RADAR SHOWING THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
IN WESTERLY FLOW ALTHOUGH THEY ARE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND
STARTING TO THIN OUT. EXPECT THIS TRENDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
SHOWERS WILL END IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH BY MORNING. RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL
KEEP SOME "DRIZZLE SHOWERS" AND MIST OVER THIS AREA UNTIL EARLY
SATURDAY. ALSO STILL HAVE WEAK CAA AND COULD SEE PRECIP MIX WITH
SNOW THIS EVENING BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TONIGHT.

 AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA SATURDAY EXPECT CLOUDS
TO DECREASE WITH SOUTHERN ZONES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CREEP UP INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES.

 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPDATED WINDS
AND PRES WITH NAM OTHERWISE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG FRONT
THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY AND
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG GALES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT OVER THE OUTER COAST...CROSS SOUND...AND CLARENCE
STRAIT. RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST AND THE EASTERN GULF COAST
ON SUNDAY.

THE PARENT SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CROSSES THE GULF
OF ALASKA ON MONDAY BUT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEGINS TO GROW WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS VARY ON THE TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WEAKENING.
GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER WEAKENING THE LOW WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE COLD AIR AVAILABLE TO IT...BUT HPC FAVORED MORE OF AN EC
SOLUTION BECAUSE OTHER MODELS ALSO SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING ITS LEAD.
THE FINAL HPC FORECAST WAS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

WITH A DYING LOW TO THE SOUTH AND COOLER UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
EASTERN GULF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT CROSSING THE GULF IS
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THE PARENT LOW THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR THIS
REASON THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

MM/CFD